The Value Profit Blueprint: A new way to find undervalued stocks and manage positions like an institution.

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COMPLETE TRANSCRIPT BELOW

Agenda

Value Profit Blueprint

  1. Value investing concepts
  2. Value investing examples 
  3. Macro principles and business cycle
  4. Order flow stacking principles
  5. Risk management 
  6. Position management

Introductions

David Trainer, CEO of New Constructs

  • Former Wall Street analyst 
  • Founded independent research firm to analyze financial filings

Pete Renzulli, CEO of Stock Trading Pro

  • 36 years experience as investor and entrepreneur
  • Specializes in order flow analysis

Value Investing Strategy 

  • Invest in Superior Capital Allocation
  • Manage Risk in Pursuit of Gains
  • Fund Managers Maintain Positions as Long as Story Remains Valid

If story changes, allocation should decrease

  • Retail Investors Need Structured, Repeatable Process
    •  To identify plays
    • And recognize when thesis changes

Macro Principles 

  • Business Cycle 
  • Sector Rotation
  • Order Flow Stacking
    • Tracks institutional supply and demand

Risk Management

  • Keep You In the Game Long Enough to Understand Value
  • Prioritize Managing Downside
  • Different From Money Management
  1. Money management – Amount of capital allocated
  2. Risk management – How capital allocated based on idea quality

Position Management

  • Build Positions in Planned Manner
    • Follow system to determine if idea remains valid
  • Add Shares Based on Volatility Metrics
  • Sell Based on Changes in Story Validity
    • Fundamentals, technicals 
    • New decision needs to be made
  • Great Investors Do Not Pick Price Target for Exits

Value Investing Examples

  • Analyze Financial Filings to Determine:
    • Economic vs Accounting Earnings
    • Growth Appreciation Period
    • Return on Invested Capital
  • Compare Valuations of Stocks like:
    •  JPMorgan (undervalued)
    •  Nvidia (overvalued based on expectations)

Coaching Opportunity Details

  • Live Training and Coaching Over 4 Months
  • Customized Member Q&A Sessions
  • 12 Months Access to Research

VALUE INVESTING ACCELERATOR:
BEGINS 12-13-23

Everybody, welcome.

Tonight, we’re going to talk about a new way of finding undervalued stocks with a new four step process from David Trainer at New Constructs. How are you tonight, David? I’m doing great. Good to be with you. Thank you.

Thank you. And I’m going to chime in with this kind of stuff that I do. We’re going to be combining fundamental analysis done by New Constructs With order flow stacking and reading the tape, stuff that we do from Stock Trading Pros.

 

So I know in the past, this has kind of been called techno fundamentalist and and that kind of stuff.

 

Lot of different names, but we’re going to add a new twist to it tonight. And I think really more importantly is adding a structure to it. I think that’s the biggest thing, and We got a fancy PowerPoint tonight.

 

We’re going to actually go through that. We could this way, everybody can actually go line by line, take some snapshots. We’ll tell you when we go over some important stuff.

 

So what’s new, David? How’s it going? I’m doing great. I’m excited about this, Pete. I think, you know, you and I are, like, Batman and Robin or or Super Superman and Batman is probably Let’s do that.

 

I’m not wearing tights. Yeah. I mean, I do think the combination of, you know, really rigorous fundamentals And and more timing is is really the the ultimate goal.

 

Look. Having run a hedge fund purely on fundamentals, I was always wishing we had some timing information. We’re right. We’re we’re almost always right at new constructs.

 

When we’re right is a little bit tougher on the long and the short. And and so I’m excited about about combining forces with you. I think this is going to be a very, very powerful value proposition.

 

I agree. And, you know, it’s interesting. We have a lot of new members that come into our community, and, Fortunately, when 2022 ended, you know, there were a lot of stocks that were up a massive massive amount.

 

Fundamentally or not, whether they should have been there or not is a whole other story. We’ll probably get into that a little bit tonight.

 

But it was very sad to see some people who turned $30,000 accounts Took the $300,000 accounts back down to $30,000 accounts, just because they didn’t have a process for determining is it still valid and And then being bold enough to make the decision whether it is or not, and we’re actually going to get into some detail on that tonight.

 

I know a lot of people have probably heard about DAO theory, and what that means, essentially, there’s always 3 different trends in place at one time.

 

We’re going to spend some time talking tonight about what kind of profits Are you going after?

 

And there’s 1 really big question that gets asked all the time or something that gets brought up on our coaching sessions quite a bit, Which is but if I get out and then it continues back in that direction after I get out, then then I made a bad decision.

 

And And we’re going to kind of cover that kind of stuff here tonight as well because you can’t you can’t be afraid to make a decision that matches your strategy, and I think that’s really, really big part of what we’re going to talk about tonight.

 

Alright. So what we’re going to actually do is we’re going to dive in, David. We’re going to we’re going to do a little PowerPoint, little back and forth between us.

 

Make sure you say hello. Stephanie, thank you for being here tonight. Really appreciate it. Oscar, how are you? And, of course, Harry. Harry’s one of our most Active members in our community. Always good to see you, Eric.

 

So let’s start out with obviously the point of tonight, the value profit Blueprint, finding undervalued stocks, which is the new Constructs part of tonight’s presentation, and then managing positions like an institution, Which is the part that I’m really going to get into tonight.

 

I do want to kind of shatter a little bit of a, myth, For lack of better way of putting it.

 

A lot of people talk about you can’t time the market, and I and I think that’s true of anybody who’s who doesn’t have a system or doesn’t have a process.

 

But if I told somebody right now who says you can’t time the market, every time something drops below the 50 period moving average, get out, that’s timing, And you need to have a system.

 

I’m not saying that that’s a perfect system, but it is a system, and we’re going to kind of work our way into that, tonight.

 

So Very first thing we’re going to do is obviously go over the agenda for tonight because we want to make sure we respect, everybody’s time.

 

Obviously, we want to make sure everybody understands where we’re going, and then ultimately set up what we’re going to finish up with, tonight.

 

So the agenda for tonight, first thing is going to talk about the value profit Blueprint, and both of those pieces in there.

 

All 3 of those pieces were very deliberate. Value being value investing, profit being managing the profits, And a blueprint having a repeatable strategy.

 

That’s really the big part, about with the markets. Right? Value investing concepts, David’s going to walk us through some So, from New Constructs.

 

And in just a second, we’re going to introduce both of us in case, anybody happens to be watching this video and might not know either one of us or might not know both of us.

 

Value investing examples, and I think what’s going to be really fun, is we’re going to start out with 2 really, really different stocks.

 

Both of them really popular. One of them, I think a lot of people might say is way overvalued, but it’s not going down.

 

The other one is kind of just sitting there with probably one of the best balance sheets out there, and And we’re going to kind of talk about timing in or out of those, whether there’s actually even something to do there.

 

Macro principles and the business cycle, I just want to come back on Screen here, Dave. Maybe we can go back and forth a little bit here about this.

 

You know, there there’s the macroeconomic picture, which is obviously, the fed and all those Those kinds of things that could move the market one way or the other. Everybody knows don’t fight the fed. Right?

 

Then you work your way down to the fundamentals, of the company, And then you ultimately have the technicals, which probably I would say 90% of the people involved in the market are really leaning on the technicals because they’re kind of That’s kind of easier to learn.

 

But I want to make sure tonight that we actually kind of add the macro picture in there, and I have one really big example of, how the fed influenced the market in a monster way to the upside and to the downside, and that’s really a big part of of the, the macro stuff.

 

The business cycle, very important. We’re going to kind of tie that back together with sector rotation, and how the business cycle affects which stocks And sectors should perform well in a particular part of the economic cycle.

 

I’m going to get into order flow Zach and principles, which is kind of my specialty, what I’m known for. Risk management, we’re going to also talk about the difference between risk management and money management.

 

They’re not the same thing. So many people confuse them. It’s crazy. We’re going to get into that, and then position management, adding to winners and taking profits.

 

Everything we do is structured. There’s a lot of people here from our community. They know that, we’re very, very deliberate from start to finish with how we put a trade together.

 

Anything on there, David, that kind of sticks out that you’re like, That’s a false belief or somebody believes, wrong about that. Well, let’s clarify something. No.

 

I’m a big believer in all that. I mean, I think the order flow stuff is Just, it’s it’s a new modern tool that should be in everyone’s toolbox because it dominates. And I think that’s a lot of what the big institutions are are using.

 

They’re taking the data feeds from all of the sources they can to analyze order flow and and stay 1 step ahead of where the market is. So if if you’re not taking that into account, you’re you’re definitely at least 1 step behind.

 

Yeah. Absolutely. So so actually, what I just want to point out tonight, if you are excited about this topic And you kind of love combining order flow, combining the fundamentals, combining timing, and all those kinds of things.

 

We are going to discuss the coaching program tonight, Tonight, so I want to be completely transparent.

 

If we do a good job tonight, we’re going to mention how to get involved with myself and David, from December through April In, training and a coaching program, get some research from us, coaching, a whole bunch of things, okay, and and the new newsletter we’re putting out.

 

So we’re going to hop right into it. 1st, a little bit about David. Obviously, there’s a shot of David on CNBC, looking very smart talking about Netflix, of all stocks.

 

Right? That stock just, whether or not you believe they have the greatest business model or not, the stock refuses to go down, kind of rocketed with the rest of the market.

 

Obviously, the CEO of New Constructs. I’m very grateful to be partnering up with you on this, David. Just a little bit about David and New Constructs in case you don’t know.

 

When were you were actually a, analyst, right, back in 2000 ish? Yeah. No. I was at Credit Suisse from 96 To 2000 or Wall Street till 2003, and I had a front row seat for the tech bubble before, during, and after.

 

And, you know, yeah, sort of in the eye of the storm, so to speak, given that tech that Credit Suisse was the number 1 tech investment banking firm At the time.

 

So I really saw how the sausage was made, and that’s a big part of why I decided to start New Constructs. Yeah. I know. I I think I’ve known you since 2015.

 

You’ve been really, really Talking about doing your diligence, diving deeper into the footnotes, and, you know, maybe we’ll talk a little bit today without necessarily getting into the weeds, but The high level you know, an announcement comes out.

 

Everybody today is talking about what came out after the market today, GME and AI and a few other stocks. Yesterday, it was candles.

 

There’s just the the the the headline numbers that so many people react to, it don’t I don’t think they just really realize how much How much is going in into those headlines, but more importantly, the economic earnings versus just traditional GAAP earnings.

 

We’re going to get into that a little bit today, as well.

 

So a little bit more about David and New Constructs. The next slide is actually the one that I love the most, so I just want to sell that a little bit. Independent research firm. Why is that important, David?

 

Well, look, I can tell you. Credit Suisse, when they were selling those IPOs, they did not they weren’t they weren’t they weren’t, they didn’t have the best interest of clients in mind, and they got busted for that.

 

They paid, I think, Close to, you know, several $100,000,000 in in fines. I think Wall Street was fined overall 1,200,000,000 because They were selling IPOs that they didn’t believe in.

 

Like, they were they were literally saying writing a report that says, this is a great IPO. Everyone should be in it, And then sending an email to their friends saying, I can’t believe anybody was stupid enough to invest in this.

 

Wow. Wow. So what people need to understand, Wall Street’s in the business of selling stock, not research. Research departments make zero profit. All the profit comes from the bankers and the traders.

 

If you don’t serve them, You know what happens? Right? And there are plenty of stories on Wall Street where there were good analysts, high integrity folks, who refused to do what the banker said, and they got kicked to the curb.

 

You know, there’s huge amount of money to be made in IPO’s, 100 of 1,000,000 of dollars in IPO’s.

 

Every single IPO can pay out $30, $40,000,000 to one particular firm. Right. That’s you’re talking about maybe a dozen people work on that at most.

 

Right? It’s a lot of money going around, and so they love to do IPO’s, and and all other banking deals, are are very, very lucrative, which is why firms like Goldman Sachs are making over $1,000,000,000 a quarter.

 

Not many people work at Goldman Sachs, like, on the investment banking side. These are huge amounts of money. It’s why you see these bankers Just, you know, ridiculously wealthy.

 

And that has attracted a lot of, like, really, really, really greedy type of people. And I think Even I saw during my tenure at Wall Street, there’s a real shift from people who understood their role as stewards of the capital markets.

 

I think one of the most important Mechanisms and institutions in the United States and for the United States to shift from being stewards of that to absolute Takers of that.

 

Financial pirates, financiers, whatever. And you saw that really during the tech bubble. Those folks are making so much money. And when I would ask them things like, hey.

 

What about the balance sheet? They say, like, what are you talking about, man? I’m making $1,000,000 tomorrow. I’ve been out of business school for 3 months. I don’t have time to talk about a balance sheet. Don’t bother me.

 

Yeah. I had a couple of friends that were actually market bankers Nasdaq market makers back And and it was ridiculous, especially with the spreads, and they had no idea what they were buying or selling. None. They didn’t care, actually.

 

Alright. So let’s let’s continue here. The next slide is the big one, so I want to get into what makes new constructs different and a little bit of the validation. We’re trying to build up right now to the What we’re going to get to.

 

Right? So this has always been the part, David, here. The firm shines the light into the dark corners, Meaning the footnotes of millions of financial filings that provide superior research investment research.

 

The the part that is really amazing there is, how many people are investing and putting their hard earned money into the market and making decisions nothing more than off of a CNBC headline?

 

That’s scary. Yeah. It’s absolutely right. And how many people believe that e trade commercial where they said it was so easy a baby could do it?

 

Remember the b bay the baby on Blackberry? Yeah. You know, that’s what Wall Street wants you to believe, and and they they force you down that path by overwhelming you with More information than you could possibly consume.

 

And so and then they force you to say, well, my value, you know, oh, you know, we’re simplified for you, your value, your growth.

 

Those 2 things are not this they’re not really different. There’s there’s there’s only there’s no such thing as growth without real value. I mean, you know, and and so, Yeah.

 

I think Wall Street is purposely very disempowering, and it’s a very difficult thing to learn all this stuff. And it’s very difficult to go through, you know, a a single filing. How big these are, like, 200 pages on average.

 

Wow. And so I I saw that when I was on Wall Street, and this was before there was much technology available at all. I mean, we didn’t even have the filings in In electronic form. I was going through these things manually.

 

Like, I had, like, this stuff stacked up chest high in my office, multiple stacks, so did my team. And I realized that, look, there’s there’s a lot of of differences in the way companies disclose, but it’s not infinite.

 

And, you know, income statements are very different, but there’s not an infinite amount of variation. It’s finite. And the good thing about machines is They can take on almost an infinite amount of work.

 

And so we have been carefully and very diligently over the last 20 years building NLP AI. NLP stands for natural language processing. AI stands for artificial intelligence. ML stands for Machine learning.

 

And we were doing machine learning back in 2003 before people even coined the term. And I don’t really believe there’s a real AI, but we do use machines to do a lot of work. Those machines have been taught by experts.

 

We have been scrupulously and diligently marking up these filings in a software a custom software that we built back in 2003 That machines so machines can use what the experts have done in the filings to do it on their own.

 

So let’s actually validate It’s one thing for David to say. It’s one thing for me to shake my head. Let’s actually get to where some validation is coming in on that.

 

Harvard Business School and MIT Sloan proved the fundamental data is superior. So we’re talking about David’s research through new constructs and everything you just talked about with the data.

 

Ernst and Young proved the superiority of financial analytics over Capital IQ and Bloomberg, and Harvard Business School proved the stock ratings outperformed human analysts.

 

So What we’re about to discuss tonight and when David kind of gets into the weeds of comparing a couple of different stocks, that’s the quote, unquote proof Behind the analytics.

 

That that’s a really, really big thing I want to make sure that everybody gets across tonight because this is not just you guys talking.

 

This is guys that have a lot of Track record in the market for a long, long time. Both of us are both in the market for well over 20 years, combined, maybe even 50 total.

 

By the time we all ended up, I got the gray hair for it, that’s for sure. That’s the same hair. So, so a little bit about me in case anybody, happens to be watching tonight.

 

My name is Pete. Obviously, Stock Trading Pro is my firm. Just a little bit about me, I’ve been an investor and an entrepreneur going on thirty 6 years now, which sounds crazy, but kind of right out of school, I was investing.

 

Began trading commodities in 1994, Full time stock trader. I could tell you the exact day, April 17, 2000.

 

That’s how big of a moment in my life was to Finally become a trader. So a lot of a lot of miles investing in companies and investing in stocks. 94 was actually commodities, like I said. I’m the author of equity trader one zero one.

 

I wrote that back in 2003. Owned and operated Keystone Trading Group in New York City At our peak, at 300 people trading my capital, we profitably were trading over 500,000,000 shares Per month.

 

So that says a lot about what it means to be tracking and trading order flow.

 

We’re always on the right side of the trade. Didn’t always make money, but we always had a very strict way of doing it. Had offices in 7 countries. Love visiting Ireland, probably my favorite office.

 

I’ve created the New York method trading strategy, the saturation Play and the order flow stacking method. Actually, created order flow stacking with 25 former specialists from the New York Stock Exchange, Way back in the day.

 

Stock Trading Pro itself, we have a community dedicated to helping our members achieve the dream of a comfortable retirement. Open early depending on how good you are. We have a multiyear track record of member success and testimonials.

 

Can’t tell you how grateful I am for the members. We actually have members in our community going on their 4th year right now, which I just amazing amazing that I’m really happy about that and, touched quite honestly.

 

We have 40,000 traders enrolled in our education since 2019, 30,000 subscribers on our YouTube channel, publish the daily ticker every day.

 

My specialty is order flow stacking and tape reading. We’re going to get a little bit into that today, but more importantly, we’re going to get into the value Profit blueprint.

 

And by the way, I just want to get let everybody know we want this to be interactive. So if you have any questions that are kind of in the flow Of everything that we’re talking about tonight, absolutely feel free.

 

If it’s in the flow and it won’t interrupt what we’re talking about, we’ll kind of pull that question in, and we’ll be sure that we, we touch on it.

 

Let’s see. Don saying we’ll be interested in reading the reports from Harvard Business School, MIT, Ernst It’s a young man validated.

 

I believe that that’s on the website. Isn’t it David? Yeah. I’m going to drop a link right here into the comment here thing, with with a link. That that’s a link that gives access to all 3 of those papers.

 

Okay. Awesome. Alright. Awesome. Same And we’ll do it for somebody who might not be able to Do that link later or watching a replay, we’ll actually, post that link in the description after the video after the training tonight as well.

 

Okay? Alright. So we’re just going to get right into it, strategy and high level concept. That’s actually the big part.

 

Right? Investing in capital allocation. That’s That’s what we want to talk about tonight. And this is actually a big part of investing or trading that a lot of people just really, misinterpret what risk Actually is.

 

Everybody, there’s certain things we’re going to say write that down, take a snapshot of that. The quality of the idea is the true risk In any investment or any trade.

 

That’s really, really a big, part of what we want to get across here tonight. So What that really means, and especially if you’ve been in our community, I know David and I have spoken about this quite a bit.

 

The better job you do of building reasons For choosing to accept risk, the better job, meaning the more you can notice, the more you can process, the more you put into that argument 1st from an edge perspective and then from how you build that position from a risk reward perspective.

 

The quality of the idea is going to dictate the risk you should allow It’s all to take. There’s no question about that.

 

I really hope everybody takes a screenshot of that because it’s a really, really important point. K? Alright. Managing risk, in the pursuit of superior gains is the goal. That’s a very important thing as well.

 

You’re going to notice that there is something we’re going to talking about tonight, which is managing the downside managing the downside in whether it’s whether you’re holding something for 3 months or holding something for 10 years, It’s all about managing the downside.

 

I’m going to show you a quote from Warren Buffett in just a second to, to talk about that.

 

I can’t get the links, David. We’ll act we’ll post them. We’ll do a follow-up, on what Don was asking for before. K? We’ll actually post it in the description, and we’ll email it out to everybody who registered.

 

So fund managers seek alpha and maintain positions as long as the fundamental story remains valid. Now, David, you might want to comment on that a little bit.

 

The craziness of companies having gigantic bullish gaps of being up 90% in 1 quarter And then retracing that entire move the next quarter. Do you think too many people are chasing short term alpha right now?

 

Oh, absolutely. I think Wall Street’s really sold people in This idea that you can get rich quick and get rich easy without doing any work. I mean, that’s why people are going into the market in so many ways.

 

That’s what the meme stock phenomenon is all about. Like, Who wants to turn that down? Right? No work, fast, rich. It’s better than the lottery. And easy. A lot of people want to hear it’s easy. Easy.

 

Yeah. No work, easy. Yeah. Same thing. Right? And so yes. Absolutely. I mean, I even struggle that with my own parents in retirement age. Like, hey. Listen. No. You can’t expect to make 15 or 12 or 10% every year. Those were good years.

 

People don’t want to hear that. My parents don’t even believe me when I say that. Right? So, I think so many folks have been conditioned to believe there is no risk because it just goes up, and they are crushed when it goes down.

 

I think that a lot of people the way that we worded in our communities, we said that there’s a difference between taking risk and accepting risk.

 

And a lot of people think they’re the same thing, but taking risk Is you’re just putting on a trade, not really being prepared if that trade moves against you.

 

Accepting risk is putting the trade on and saying if this idea doesn’t work out, even if it matches my edge, I’ve accepted the fact that there might be a loss on this trade, and I’m okay with that, and I kick it out.

 

And I think that’s one of the biggest reasons in my experience why some people take losses Much much bigger than they probably ever should, just simply because they never thought it was going to be ever a losing trade prior to putting the position on.

 

And I know there’s people on here watching this, Just try to raise your hand if you’ve ever moved your stop loss.

 

Yeah. Closer, closer, cloud’s just going to move it. I’m just going to move it. I’m just going to move it. 3 months later, you turned a short term Trade into oh, yeah.

 

I love this company. going to hold it for a couple of years. Don’t do that. Accept the risk instead of taking risk. A very big difference. Alright. Alright. So more about capital allocation. I I think this is a big part here too, David.

 

Does the fundamental story remain Valid. And what we’re about to talk about in just a couple of minutes, David’s going to walk through some of the elements of what a fundamental story would mean.

 

And I think We have it on a couple of slides here, but I think a a big thing that is probably not maybe viewed enough from investors is Competition.

 

You know, there’s a lot of celebrity CEOs these days, and whether or not competition is getting a little bit more intense And how that’s going to affect margins and that kind of thing.

 

I think that’s probably a downside of of, social media where they’re in love with the CEO and maybe not necessarily Really looking at the fundamentals of a company.

 

We could probably rattle us some companies, but we don’t want to rattle anybody’s cage here tonight.

 

That’s not the point. Right? Okay. So if the story changes, allocation follows. The story could get better, allocation could get bigger. The story could change, Allocation should decrease.

 

The big thing I want to get across here to everybody is if the story changes, it’s okay to change with the story. I’ve so many I got actually have a, you know, I actually have a true story, unfortunately, an unfortunate story.

 

When I had my firm in New York City, we had Somebody in our firm who knew somebody who knew somebody of a public company, and it wasn’t in front inside information in their life.

 

They was just like the guy. Right? And the story Changed and the stock went from 50 to 3, but he kept writing it down and getting more and getting more and getting more because he wouldn’t admit the story changed.

 

So I just want to get across to everybody here tonight, whether you join us for coaching or not.

 

It’s really, really important to make A very clear decision of why do I like this and how do I know if that changes. Obviously, technically, you could do that on charts Five thousand different ways.

 

David’s going to show us some ways tonight looking at different metrics to know if the story’s starting here and what it looks like if that same story changed.

 

Now the big thing with fundamentals, And you could correct me if I’m wrong, David, but it takes a little bit longer for that cycle to change, than it might change with you can look at a chart and a weekly chart and you’re Making a new decision in a week.

 

That’s right. Now the business world moves a little more slowly in the stock market world. Right? The stock is the stock market is Supposed to be discounting everything that might happen in the future back to today.

 

It’s it’s it’s digesting everything that might happen And making a calculated guess as to what the present value of future cash flows ought to be based on everything it knows today.

 

So that’s the good news about fundamentals, so they tend to be pretty sticky.

 

There are news and certain things that will indicate that fundamentals are changing. Sometimes there’s news that lets you know the fundamentals changed a long time ago.

 

But at the end of the day, you’re really, really taking a lot of risk. You’re driving at night without headlights. You’re Accepting risk you might not realize if you don’t understand what the fundamentals are telling you today.

 

Do you have an example? I know I’m hitting you with this out of of of something where the fundamentals might have changed a while ago, Something that came up.

 

You know, I think in some cases, you know, you could take, Let’s take one of these these early, meme stocks like Beyond Meat.

 

Right? In the beginning, the fundamentals looked a lot better because they were growing And they were taking market share. But the underlying fundamentals really, you know, in terms of the cash flow, were never that good.

 

And it took a while for people to recognize That the fundamentals of that business were never that good because the valuation implied that the cash flows were going to scale like the revenue, and they just didn’t.

 

So, actually, I’ll talk about that tonight also, everybody. It’s going to price and pride expectations or growth appreciation period.

 

So Stay tuned. We’re going to get to that in, in a couple of minutes. K? So again, I I strongly encourage you to take some of these snapshots of of this of the slides because I want everybody to learn tonight.

 

That’s really the big Hey. Tonight. Retail investors need a structured repeatable process to identify a fundamental play and a system to identify changes.

 

And I I just want to make sure we stay here For a second, because I I just there’s so many people that are smart and caring and hardworking in the market who just don’t have a Even a simple process to say, here’s why I like it, and I’m going to hold it until that reason changes.

 

They don’t have that simple process. If everybody can really take nothing else out of tonight, make sure that’s something you write down. Okay? Why do I like it? How do I know if that’s still valid and how do I know if it changes?

 

It’s a real and it doesn’t matter if you’re holding it for a month or a decade. David doesn’t make a difference. There’s still reasons you want to be involved in that idea.

 

Alright? Alright. So just to get back a little bit, The problem with, with being involved in the market is everybody has heard this quote from Warren Buffett, But Warren Buffett holds stocks forever.

 

We’ve heard this over and over again in our community, and, what we kind of put over here, A sound bite. Right? It’s obviously a sound bite that Warren Buffet said one time. So he never sells, so neither will I.

 

And people just got absolutely demolished That thankfully have come into our community. We’re giving them a little more structure, and I know David, you’ve spoken to people for the last 20 some ideas.

 

At some point, the story changes, And your thesis of that particular idea has to change. You know, just think about gateway computer.

 

Like, I actually you know, the Books and books and books back there behind me right now of companies that were quote, unquote, the hot story, couldn’t do anything wrong, and people buying into it, But having absolutely no, no structure, no process for saying, is that still valid?

 

So the whole the market always goes up.

 

I don’t know if you’ve heard that over your career too as well, David. Doesn’t matter how much goes down. The market always goes up, and Warren Buffett never sells. But we’re going to debunk that right now on the next slide.

 

So I just want to make sure that, everybody understands that’s That’s a a sound bite, not necessarily a trading strategy. Alright? The truth Warren Buffett is on record as saying Twelve investments have basically built his wealth.

 

Now think about that. How does that even make any sense if he never sells? That just doesn’t make any sense. So I just want to I kind of want to shoot some holes and some limiting beliefs here tonight. Right?

 

So meaning is obviously great at 3 things, Finding undervalued companies, which we’re about to talk about next, dumping a story that changes, and then the last part is one that I think that is Really, really missed by most people scaling and holding the winners.

 

As much as you want to make sure that you’re kicking out ideas that aren’t, working out, Obviously, we want to understand how to hang on to the ones that are we we have a phrase in our community that, when something is doing Exactly what you write down.

 

You owe it to yourself to build into that position because if you didn’t do it then, when would you? Right? Alright. So the Warren Buffett quote, obviously, this is just from this year, so this is not something like from 20 years ago.

 

Warren Buffett’s, formula for success, one good decision every 5 years. That doesn’t mean he’s met he’s only buying 5 of 1 stock every 5 years.

 

It means that he’s Putting lines in the water based on all the information available, and then he’s looking to see the weeds get pulled out of it And eventually starts to scale the winner.

 

So everybody needs to take a snapshot of that. In your experience, David, Especially on the retail side of things.

 

Do you think that people had this kind of a mindset where, we’re going to minimize our mistakes And the few big ones are going to pay us, so do you think everybody’s looking for a winner every time they put a trade on?

 

I mean, Wall Street’s selling you a winner every time. Right? I mean, You know, Beyond Meat’s going to be the next Tyson.

 

You name it. You know? Every single IPO is going to, you know, is going to be the next Amazon or Scoob or the next Microsoft. That’s how they sell it all the time. That’s the narrative. And and and you’re right, Pete.

 

It’s just not it’s just not true. I think we all as adults, we sort of tend to recognize often that good things are rare, and patience Around waiting for good things is maybe one of the most valuable assets or virtues you can have.

 

If you’re putting yourself into every single person or every single relationship You ever had? You’d be 1 tired and really and probably upset. Be careful. You gotta choose where you allocate your resources carefully in this world.

 

Okay. So let’s keep going. want to respect everybody’s time. So make sure you take a snapshot of that every time you think that every trade, every investment needs to pay off.

 

Warren Buffett. Right? K. We don’t need any more proof than that. Alright? Okay. So the lesson, he does not hold every investment forever. A sound bite is It’s not a strategy.

 

That’s what you really want to write down, especially in today’s social media where where literally expect even athletes, especially now, they’re trying to get sound bites in every time For new endorsement deals.

 

Just remember this, a sound bite is not a long term strategy.

 

Alright? Very, very important. So something you’re going to hear me talk about over and over and over again, I’m going to Keep repeating it is managing the downside is what keeps you in the market.

 

You’ve hired yourself as a money manager, now you have to go out there and manage that money.

 

Managing the downside comes first while you are gaining enough experience to understand value. That’s the important part. Okay? Hey, Steve. How’s it going? Nice to see you here tonight.

 

Awesome. If I don’t speak to you, have a nice holiday. Alright? Okay. Now, David, if you don’t mind, I know as far as, My opinion, you you’re very well known for the differences between quality of earnings and valuation.

 

And maybe if we could first start out with the difference between quality of earnings and kind of what you might see on a on a sound bite when earnings gets announced.

 

As soon as earnings come out, they’re like, EPS was this, and revenue is this, and guidance was that.

 

How is that different from economic earnings or GAAP earnings? Well, first of all, those those street earnings or adjusted earnings that we see Coming across the tape, they’re not audited.

 

They can be calculated in different ways from 1 quarter to the next. They are proven to be manipulated by management.

 

These are other Harvard papers, other multiple firms, Or at schools and institutions writing papers about how managers, Wall Street executives, manage earnings In order to try and manipulate investors.

 

It’s well known. If you’re on been on Wall Street, you’ve seen like, everyone knows. So those numbers are not are not reliable. And if you’re talking about what does get reported and what is auditable, that’s a better number.

 

It’s likely much closer to the truth than any of the adjusted numbers. But looking at a current accounting earnings, as, an old friend used to say, it’s kind of like playing tennis without a net.

 

You’re not taking into account the full financial picture, and the responsibilities of a company when you’re only looking at accounting earnings.

 

Economic earnings are taking into account the whole picture. Accounting earnings is like going to the doctor and the doctor trying to diagnose your sickness just by looking at your ears.

 

Economic earnings is a full physical. To understand the complete financial picture, income statement, balance sheet, cash flow statement, footnotes.

 

GAAP earnings is income statement only, and they have 3 2 other financial statements and a set of footnotes for a reason. And If you’re not looking at all of them, you’re taking a lot of risk. So what about this question?

 

Obviously, generally accepted accounting for renewal, why are they allowed to report Non GAAP earnings. Great question. It’s something you know the SEC’s been fighting it for a while trying to say they can’t.

 

But what what people really need need to realize, this is a great question, is that companies operate under this rule within the within the guidelines Of the SEC, of disclosure.

 

So you can do anything at a company, and it’s legal as long as you tell people you’re doing it. Wow. Wow. Wow. Right?

 

So as long as you explain what that that adjusted earning is earnings is and and do a reconciliation between What you put in there and and what you put in your adjusted earnings number and what the and the reported number is, as long as you explain that, you know, it could be on page 570.

 

It could be anywhere. You can do whatever you want, and companies do.

 

Like, when we were first covering WeWork, we found all kinds of Of conflicted transactions going on that were disclosed, like Adam Neumann paying his family a whole bunch of money for catering parties.

 

You know, just all kinds of crazy stuff. So that’s the rule you need to keep in mind, and and I’ve talked to the SEC about this. And, you know, look.

 

That’s just the way they operate. You know, as long as they’re telling you that they’re doing it. That’s why filings are 250 pages long, because they’re telling you they’re doing a lot of stuff they don’t expect you to read.

 

Right. So it’s buried. Maybe not intentionally, but it’s buried. I think sometimes intentionally. Alright. Great question there, Tony. Appreciate that. Okay. So quality areas now what about valuation?

 

I know that the word the term valuation gets thrown around a lot. How would you how would you define valuation? So the the valuation is how you you you can tell the difference between a company and a stock.

 

You can have a good company, But a good company is not necessarily good stock if the price of that stock is so high that the future cash flows required to justify it are beyond the Wildest dreams of the company’s future performance.

 

Right? So for example, NVIDIA is a great example. Good company, super cash flow, Not a good stock because the stock price implies its revenues are going to be greater than the GDP of Mexico.

 

Right? And so at some point, Right. There’s a good price to pay. You might love a car. They come out with a new super beautiful red Camaro. You gotta have it.

 

At any price, would you pay $1,000,000? We’d pay $10,000,000. No. You’d probably pay something like, I don’t know, 30, 40,000. I don’t want a chimera cost. The point is there’s there’s a difference between price and value.

 

And so you you you need to understand that valuation, when it comes to fundamentals, always plays a role, Because you can overpay something no matter how how much real worth it has. You can always overpay.

 

So tonight, just so everybody knows, tonight, we’re actually going to Show you the valuations and how New Constructs does it, and we’re also going to give everybody a chance to understand how to get the research at the end of tonight’s presentation.

 

So let’s actually continue. Alright. So value investing 2. 0. We’re actually going to break down, some of the research that’s done by New New constructs.

 

And David’s actually going to do it with 2 very popular companies right now, and I think what’s really interesting, David, is part of what I was very intentional about before was if the story changes Or if the story remains valid and I I personally just want to give an example because obviously, everybody we’re we’re actually going to get into right now.

 

NVIDIA is one of the stocks. If you think about why NVIDIA or, Supermicro, which went from basically 90 to 360 in 1 earnings core 1 quarter, Literally, 1 quarter with AI exploded, that’s the story.

 

It’s like whether, you know, whether we’re talking about the story of fundamentals or the story Behind the perceived value of why that stock went from 90 to 360, this is a part of understanding is that story still valid.

 

So if you’re buying MicroStrategy at $360 when 5 weeks ago, it was 90. That’s the story you’re buying into, and then you have to justify the risk on that story and have the skill to understand if that story is still valid.

 

Did did I explain that correctly? It’s more more your area of expertise. But Absolutely. That’s exactly right. I mean, you know, it’s it’s one thing.

 

You know? For example, we loved NVIDIA 5 or 6 years ago, we wrote a report. It was a long idea. And when it went up 300% or so, we said, okay. Great. It’s no longer cheap. It’s kind of expensive. We’re done. Same thing with GameStop.

 

Right? And they went on to go on a ton ton more, but too much. At some point, It’s too expensive, and it’s it’s time to move on, or you’re taking a huge amount of risk that the stock’s going to come down a whole lot.

 

In some frothy markets, maybe that doesn’t matter, right, when you have super low interest rates.

 

Maybe it doesn’t matter. Things can just keep going up. But From a fundamental perspective, there’s a limit to how much you can pay. And when the Fed’s pumping liquidity into the market.

 

That’s kind of the story we’re going to talk about, at the end of 2022, coming into 20, 20 at the end of 2021, coming into 2022, we spent a lot of time in our community Preparing everybody for the other side of the market just because the entire other than what happened globally, once they started to change, pumping that liquidity into the market, the Fed, the macro picture has to be a part of the conversation, both on the upside and on the downside because if you catch it on the upside and the fundamentals are matching it, That’s generational wealth.

 

But even if the stock has good fundamentals, but the fed is like, no. We’re about to squash this thing.

 

You still have to pay attention to that. And like I was saying before, that’s putting the pieces into the argument of what kind of risk is it you’re willing to accept based on the likelihood of what’s about to unfold.

 

And that big fed picture, it takes a lot longer to unfold, than just the m thirty announcement that, hey. They’re raising rates or cutting it or whatever they believe is going to happen next quarter.

 

That’s more a little bit longer term type stuff. See, Billy, I like Tesla, but in the long run, I really believe in the stock Regarding to AI and energy.

 

I think the big conversation now with Tesla without getting into Elon Musk and the g you know, that whole curse thing he did last week, you know, there’s batteries as well.

 

There’s competition. Like, that story is changing no matter how much you love Elon Musk. There’s The cost of parts, there’s other competition.

 

He’s got amazing first mover advantage, and he’s got amazing celebrity CEO, but he’s, again, he’s very similar to Steve Jobs where people, like, worshiping him at the cult, and you just don’t know if that’s going to influence if All of a sudden, the margins keep shrinking and shrinking and shrinking like they’ve done for the last 3 quarters, which we’ve been all over.

 

Me personally, margins went down, margins went down, margins went down, and everybody’s Ignoring it. That’s in love with him. So, again, raw data versus your opinion is they they they should not be in the same place.

 

Okay. So a little more value investing, David. I’m going to let you take this over here. So four stages of Value investing as done by David at New Constructs.

 

There’s more to it. I’m going to show you how to look at the research and whatnot tonight. Economic earnings versus accounting earnings, Market expectations, and this is an important one here.

 

This is not a this is not gap from earnings. This is the growth appreciation period. I gotta be honest, when I learned that From the book that you had recommended to me from Robison.

 

It really blew my mind because you really think about if a company comes out with a product, There’s generally a life cycle around the appreciation that you will see for that period, and the companies that are around for a long time Are reinventing growth appreciation periods.

 

So for example, obviously, everybody got involved in the cloud after the original Internet surge, and that’s Carrying, like, Microsoft and Amazon and all those companies, so we’ll get into that a little bit. Return on invested capital.

 

And, David, maybe when we get up to that, maybe I know I’ve answered this question personally, but the difference between return on invested capital and return on equity, we get to ask that question all the time, and then free cash flow yield and a DCF model.

 

And I don’t know if there’s a difference, maybe you could clarify this for me when we get up to here.

 

DCF model versus a reverse DCF model, is there a difference? A a reverse is a type of DCF model. So Okay. The 1st discounted cash flow modeling is different from a traditional discounted cash flow modeling in in one very important way.

 

Traditional discounted cash flows Are where someone projects the future and gets the price. It says, okay. This is what I think the price should be, and they compare that to the market price.

 

Whereas the reverse DCF model says, let’s start with the market price, because I would rather be a critic of fortune tellers or mister market than I would like to be a fortune teller.

 

And so we’ll start with the stock price and reverse engineer what the company’s gotta do to justify that price.

 

That’s how we can figure out that NVIDIA at, You know, close to $500, or even $470, you know, has to have revenue Greater than the GDP of Mexico in 2022 to justify its price.

 

And that’s the way we like to operate. And the growth appreciation period is linked to the reverse DCF. That’s the number of years the company is expected to grow profits.

 

And just like you said, Pete, There are cycles for businesses and in their investing. And 1 cycle is undefeated over the history of the world, and that is the law of competition.

 

That means that a company can’t grow its profits forever. Because if it does, it has an infinite value. Right? So we have to recognize, as Pete was saying, like, there’s there’s cycles because there’s competition.

 

And by the way, when you’re making a lot of money and you’ve got a really high return on capital, a super profitable business, or a great idea, do you think people are going to sit back and just go, Oh, great job.

 

Why don’t you just go make a lot of money? I want you to have all of that. No. They’re like, oh, can I get a piece of that?

 

You know, you got a 90% margin. I’m happy to take an 80% margin. The guy behind you says I’ll take 70. The guy behind that says 60, 50, 40, 30 to till it goes to 0. That’s how competition works everywhere.

 

No one’s giving out free margin. And so the growth appreciation concept built into our reverse discounted cash flow model aims to capture How long the market price is saying the Company is going to be able to grow profits?

 

Because no one can do it forever. So we’d like to say expensive stocks have prices that imply really long growth appreciation periods. Inexpensive stocks have prices that imply zero gross growth appreciation.

 

So so in that case, are they priced correctly? Well, you always want to buy stocks or short stocks that are priced incorrectly, And that’s where we like to play. Right?

 

So I’m going to buy a stock, for example, all the stocks on our most attractive stocks list, they have Market market applied growth appreciation periods usually less than 1 or 2 years, but often zero because the market is implying the profits will permanently decline.

 

I want to buy that. That’s where the expectations for Expectations Investing that’s the name of the book, by the way, that Pete was mentioning.

 

Expectations investing by my my my mentor, Michael Mauboussin, when I was on Wall Street. You want to buy low expectations, sell high expectations. When the stock price implies permanent profit decline, well, those are low expectations.

 

You buy that, and then if the stock price just goes to the point where It implies profits will stay the same. You’re making money. You get a free call option in any growth.

 

Right? Now on the other hand, When the stock price implies that you’re going to have margins that are 50% greater than anything you’ve ever had in the past, and your revenue is going to be the GDP in Mexico, Those are high expectations.

 

Probably want to sell there. I think this point by Don is correct, and, unfortunately, I agree with you about the health care industry.

 

I don’t know any and and David, you may maybe I don’t know any industry that is oblivious to competition, and, unfortunately, health care in this Country is so expensive. I wish I could disagree with that, but he’s correct.

 

There are smaller firms, and I’ve got some friends that are that are creating smaller businesses where they’re Effectively taking the less profitable parts of a of a hospital out and doing it stand alone, and they can do it better, faster, cheaper, and that’s lowering the cost to care.

 

But it’s only around the edges. I mean, don’t get me wrong. Like, the the the health care industry’s got some real problems. I agree. I agree. Manny’s got a good question.

 

I don’t know if this is a simple answer, but maybe we’re going to get into that when we look at the 2 examples. Yeah. Free cash flow yield greater than 10% is, like, one of the best single metrics in the world for picking a stock.

 

We saw that in our own backtesting when we ran a hedge fund. You heard people saying that all across The Internet, free cash flow yield greater than I’d say 10 to to 30 or 40%.

 

When it gets super high, usually, you’re talking about some weird issues Because I mean, that’s just crazy high, but, like, 10 to 20% is a is a good number.

 

I like to also, look at Free cash flow yield based on a 2 year average or even 3 year average free cash flow yield because free cash flow is very volatile.

 

That’s the one downside. It’s the number you want to measure, but it’s also up and down because it changes based on capital cycles.

 

You could be making a ton of money. You’re like, oh, I want to grow my business. I’m going to plop down a couple of $1,000,000 into this new product.

 

Well, now your free cash flow is terrible. Does Does that mean the business is terrible? Not necessarily. So average free cash flow over time is a good number, and so 10 to 20% is a good is a good range.

 

  1. Tony’s asking about Graham and Dodd. I would say it is, but obviously Seth Klarman put a bunch of new stuff in there in most recent edition.

 

Yeah. Look, Graham and Dodd, those principles will always matter. Right? I I like to say we’re value investing in new constructs even though value investing has a bad name. Value investing 2 point o with robo analyst technology.

 

Right? So we can go through the filings and get the answers to the real profits, And steer through all the noise in the media to get people the truth about profitability evaluation.

 

And only with that information are you really equipped To be a value investor in the way that Ben Graham and and Charlie, Charlie Munger, rest in peace, and and Warren Buffett have said.

 

So why don’t we get into some examples here? David, you want to share your screen and we’ll get into, I’m going to talk about JPMorgan, and we’re going to talk about NVIDIA.

 

Do you want to use the one that’s on the screen in the PowerPoint, or do you want to just Take it from your website. No. You can take it from the website. I think I’m sharing that that that window. You want to put it right over there?

 

Yeah. Yep. Well, here we are with our with with NVIDIA. And by the way, using the system as easy as Putting a ticker in and getting an answer. Right? And this is our institutional product, so this is sort of the Cadillac version.

 

You’re getting you’re getting kind of the best best thing, The best part of our product here. And so whatever you type in a ticker, you’re going to get what I call an answer. That’s the risk reward rating.

 

For NVIDIA, we’re saying neutral. And part of that’s because it’s a good company, strong quality of earnings. Right. Economic earnings versus reported earnings, positive and rising. Return on invested capital, 86%.

 

That’s super high. That’s great. But the valuation, it’s where we’re getting to be a little bit, really, really high. So, look, the free cash flow yield, 1%, not attractive. The price to economic book value.

 

Economic book value is the no growth value of the business. That’s that ratio I was telling you before when we like Stocks whose prices imply profits will permanently decline. That’s when you see an economic book value ratio between 0.

 

5 and and and one. When the economic book value ratio is 1, that means the stock price believes profits will stay the same forever. So you’re getting a free option on growth there. But at 7. 5, that’s a really high ratio.

 

That’s why it’s getting our our our worst rating very unattractive. And then the market implied growth appreciation period For NVIDIA, it’s more than a 100 years when you enter in reasonable estimates of the future.

 

That’s consensus estimates For revenue and projecting reasonable estimates for margins. And that’s where we’re saying, hey. Bad stock, good company.

 

So that I think that’s a part that’s really misunderstood by people, and maybe we can drive that point home because it’s a 5 $475 stock, A $500 stock, and the argument is, well, it’s $500, and I bought it at 200.

 

I love it. But now you have to save yourself for continuing from here. That’s right. Exactly. Exactly. So if we go into that and we look at it at a reverse discounted cash flow model for NVIDIA, which I got up on the screen now, Pete.

 

This is from one of our models, again, one of our institutional services where we give clients the ability to look at Optimistic, pessimistic, and even a default scenario.

 

Right? The default scenario, if we zoom in on that, is based on Consensus estimates for revenue and and a reasonable extrapolation for margins.

 

And we put that kind of information into the system and you project based out on that, The best we can do is run $115.

 

When we go optimistic, right, we’re jacking up revenue growth rates. You can see up to close to 28%. Here, you can see that.

 

And then the return on capital versus cost of capital spread over 15 years gets to 350%. So this is where we get to the implied revenue and profits that say, hey. The g d it’s gotta be bigger than the GDP of Mexico.

 

Because to justify $465, you gotta believe that NVIDIA is going to grow revenues at 28% compounded annually While achieving a 350% return on capital versus cost to capital spread on average for 15 years.

 

Wow. Wow. And and when you look at the the growth trajecting the value of the stock, that’s where you get, you know, this crazy number. And and we’ll you know, we even show people how we do this. Like, here’s the reverse DCF model.

 

Here’s the optimistic scenario. Right? And when we scroll out to year 15, This is where we’re seeing well, the stocks come down a little bit. So year 16 is where we get to 1. 3 and and near 17, 1,500,000,000,000.

 

Right? The GDP of Mexico, I think, was around 1,300,000,000,000 in 2022. So when the stock was at $500, we did that work. That’s why we said, hey. The stock price implies revenues will be the size of of, of, Mexico.

 

And you can see here our our after tax profit margins are up around 45%. We look in the past for NVIDIA and the rating breakdown here, you can see historical after tax profit margins Have been 30, 20, 44%.

 

So we’re we’re talking best ever margins At 44. 6% with a 30% or 28% compounded annual growth rate in revenue For 15 years to justify the price.

 

That’s why we’re saying it’s expensive. That’s a big deal for 15 years. Not doing it once, not having a couple of good quarters for 15 years to justify the current price.

 

And again, we’re not we’re not making recommendations here. We’re basically just Laying out the fundamentals, and then everybody needs to make a decision on what is is that likely to be achieved?

 

And that’s really where the investment decision comes from. That’s right. Right. Do do you want to buy a stock that already has that much good news baked into it, or would you rather buy a stock that has bad news baked into it?

 

And look. You know, I saw this during the tech bubble. I had friends of mine who capitulated, you know, who said, no.

 

I’m never going to buy into this stuff, David. This is not good. There’s no real value. And And, you know, I’m the one who believes in the integrity of the capital markets, and maybe I’m naive.

 

But a lot of those folks came back to me and said, you know, I gave in, David, because it’s not about value anymore. It’s the greater fool theory.

 

It doesn’t matter what I pay. All it matters is some greater fool will pay more. And that’s just a strategy I’m not willing to take. That’s just too risky. We know what happened in the tech bubble. It blew up in everybody’s face.

 

And I’m afraid that’s going to happen. It’s already happened in some cases. Right? Some of these stocks you mentioned, Whether it’s Beyond Meat or the meme stocks, you know, they blew up, and they blew right back down.

 

And and that’s what you gotta be careful of. It’s hard to it’s It’s hard to time those things, and that’s where I think your your capabilities, Pete, complement mine well.

 

Yep. We’re actually going to talk about that next just so everybody knows. And, actually, Ed brings up a good point here, which I think it’s just a natural function of business.

 

The smaller companies figure out how to do health care better. They will be purchased likely. I think that’s a good point. And that’s not that’s not the worst thing for the guy who who who figured it out.

 

Right? That’s right. That tick tends to be what happens with some of these big companies. They got a war chest To kind of, beat out all the competition or prevent the competition from really ever being a threat.

 

Let’s see. Paco’s got a good question here. Does this time Too much just right for the stock to reach its current price correlated all with simple PE ratios and PEG ratios.

 

Yeah. A lot of times, the PE ratio and the PEG ratios look extended, especially for stock like NVIDIA when it’s gets this expensive.

 

Everything screams expensive. What we like about what we’re doing is that we’re just so much more explicit about it.

 

Like, the PE ratio can be low or high because maybe the risk in the stock It’s high or low, or maybe it’s the margins too high, or maybe it’s the revenue growth is too high, or the expectations for those are too high.

 

We’re just much more explicit. I I I just like the Kind of the way I think about it, Pete, is like, listen, if we can do this work and have this diligence, why would we ever ignore it?

 

Why would you take the risk Of footnotes insights and and valuation insights, and just say, you know, I’d just rather invest without that information.

 

Let’s Let’s just play dumb. Let’s play let’s just ignore the good information and, not have it. I I figured we do it the the the right way.

 

So Tom is actually asking a great question, which we actually happen to be prepared for. Show us a great company. Yeah. Yeah. Let’s go back to the screen here, Pete. And So we type in a ticker, and again, get an answer.

 

So let’s see all the green here, JPMorgan. This is one that I think is is even better than an index fund, because the index funds these days are carrying a lot of risk, especially when they got a bunch of these risky stocks in them.

 

Whether it’s Uber eventually or even Tesla, those are some really risky stocks with not great business models.

 

JPMorgan, on the other hand, pretty strong business model. And, again, you’re seeing the same quality of earnings that we saw with NVIDIA. Economic earnings positive and rising, a high return on invested capital.

 

It’s not 86%, But by the way, 86% is not sustainable. It’s 15%, still top quintile. Free cash flow yield 5%, strong. My favorite part is the price to economic book value of 0.

 

  1. So JPMorgan, at $158 a share, Stock price implies that its profits will permanently decline by 30%. So mister Market is saying JPMorgan’s profits will permanently decline by 30%.

 

Based on the current price and what they and what they have traditionally done? Correct. Correct. So if you believe the company is going to do any better than that, it’s cheap. It’s great risk reward. You got great cash flow.

 

You got low expectations. Right? That’s good risk reward. That’s what fundamentals is about. By the way, obviously, the whole point of tonight is we we’re We’re going to show everybody how to get this data and work with myself and David.

 

That’s really a bit that’s the whole point. We want to introduce the concepts and then give people a chance to work with us in a more intimate setting, so want to make that clear.

 

So, David, we got NVIDIA overvalued based on what we’re talking about right now. Does not mean necessarily bail out of it.

 

This is a big part of what we talked about at beginning when we’re actually to step into next, which is having a process For even if the stock is overvalued, it keeps going, which is a big argument.

 

I bought it at 300. It’s 500. Why would I get out of this thing?

 

Nobody’s saying get out. What we are saying is have a plan if you need to. And, like, at what point do you let that thing go from 500 back to where it was, which was what, a 180 or something before It took off.

 

It’s just smart business. You hired yourself as a money manager. I say it all the time, and I’m going to keep saying it again. You have a trading account.

 

You have an investing account. You’re in charge of that. You are a money manager, and you have to act Possibly, what even if it’s for you. So that’s the kind of stuff that we’re we’re getting into tonight. Okay? Alright.

 

So let’s let’s kind of move on. We talked about JPMorgan. Got a little bit into, NVIDIA. And, David, if you don’t mind, Could we maybe just talk about in a little bit more detail the growth appreciation period and why why this is red?

 

Yeah. For NVIDIA, if we if we go back to the reverse DCF example I was sharing before, and, yeah, if we type in the ticker here, just to go back with what Pete had on the screen there, NVIDIA’s red. It’s greater than 50 years.

 

Because when we think about a business That has an expectation for more than 50 years of profit growth Or a competitive advantage that is strong enough that the moat is 50 years wide, so to speak, that they’re going to grow profits For 50 years.

 

That’s a rare thing.

 

Most companies aren’t around for 50 years. Right? Most companies are more around than more than a dozen years. So the rare it’s very, very rare that a company can grow profits for 50 years, and so that’s a that’s a red flag.

 

When the expectations baked into the stock price are giving the company credit for that, that’s rare, and that’s why we give it a very unattractive rating, and that’s why it’s red. K.

 

So now let’s get a little bit more into the actual having Plan for if these overvalued stocks, which are great if you got them, what to do with them if they should happen to turn And, again, we’re not giving any financial advice here.

 

We’re we’re giving information. Everybody ultimately has to make their own decision. We want to help you make better decisions. We want to kind of work our way now into building that argument and understanding if the argument is still valid.

 

So we talked about the fundamental side, now we’re going to kind of shift a little bit more over into the bigger picture side, and price action, which is kind of my specialty, which is, order flow.

 

So moving a little bit further into building and talking about, conviction is amplifying That conviction. So bigger picture fundamentals other than the stocks fundamentals.

 

That’s really a big part of what we’re talking about. Right? Alright. So macro principles that are a part of what we just talked about, so the business cycle and sector rotation, obviously, never fight the fed.

 

And And if anybody didn’t really understand the, implication of what I said before and how the fed can really influence those things, and why you need to be on top of that, we really don’t need to go back too far in history, that to talk about what happened In the world over here, and the fed pumping liquidity into the market for this, basically, around an 18 month period, And then when they stopped and what happened.

 

And now the rally that we’re actually unfolding now is the expectation that the feds going to kind of lighten up, on the gas.

 

So a big part of what I want to make sure that we are talking about here is understanding that there’s more than just the fundamentals that we can lean on.

 

So when we start to pile on top of the stocks fundamentals, Start to add where that stock is and the company is in the economic cycle or the business cycle, we could then start to add To our conviction to the idea itself, and and this is really a big part, David.

 

I’m just going to come back on the screen to bring this point up, is that there are different reasons For how long you would hold that stock and different reasons for whether or not it would change.

 

And when the market started to roll over at the end of 2022 into 2023. That was more based on the fed and liquidity and not so much about the fundamentals of the company.

 

So this is kind of where we’re putting the pieces together and, like, we talked about on our side, building the argument and knowing why it might change.

 

So I want to be clear about that. So we’re going to talk a little bit more now about Whether or not you believe you can time, it doesn’t make a difference.

 

It’s about having a structure for managing the upside as well as managing the downside. Everybody understands the stop loss to kick that trade out if it gets down to that particular spot.

 

What we’re going to kind of work our way into a little bit today is having the same type of structure, The same discipline that you have for a stop loss, assuming you have discipline, to have the same discipline to hold winners and understand when it might be time to hit the road on that idea.

 

Very, very important.

 

K? Okay. So we’re going to weigh into, Some more parts of the market, and this is probably something that’s not really, discussed enough, which is different parts of the economic cycle will affect different Companies differently.

 

So if you have companies with the research that David’s talking about today and producing good Economic earnings, and that happens to be happening in the part of the economic cycle that is good for that industry, good for that sector.

 

This is where the ideas can really get amplified and outsized gains can be achieved. So, So basically, what I’m talking about here is setting yourself up for asymmetrical wins.

 

So in other words, it’s not risking a dollar to make 3, it’s risking a dollar to make 100. And the more of these pieces you put together, they are possible.

 

We saw that happening when the Fed was pumping liquidity and everything was going up with it. Asymmetrical gains and positioning yourself asymmetrical gains is really where the business is built.

 

And we kind of go back to the, Warren Buffett quote before. After all of those years of being in the markets, and he’s saying that basically 12 good decisions Created all of his wealth.

 

That tells you that you have to be in the game long enough to gain enough experience to put yourself in that position.

 

But while you’re doing that, you need to keep yourself in the game by kicking out the ones that aren’t valid anymore. Very, very important. You’re going to keep hearing me talk about this over and over again.

 

Managing the downside is what keeps you in the game long enough to understand how to make it on the upside. And what we just talked about here, That’s a big part of it. K?

 

So getting a little bit deeper into conviction and sector Order flow, what we do for our community every night, as you can see on the bottom here, is the number of stocks that actually have stacked order flow, and And we’re going to talk about what stacked order flow means, in just a second.

 

If I could actually just kind of come back on the screen right now just for a second.

 

And, basically, order flow Is the orders going down to the market from hedge funds and institutions, and the better job that they get on those orders printing around VWAP, volume weighted average price, The more order flow they sent down, the more commissions are made, and the more, shares are going to go down.

 

So order flow is Essentially, institutional supply and demand that we are shadowing. want to be super clear about that. So all the research that David’s doing and and Doing correctly or in the way that they do it.

 

Those are eventually going to be brought to okay. We did research, now we need to allocate capital. So the in my opinion, the easier way to use the fundamentals is to pay attention to where that money is already being allocated.

 

And And as long as that story is still the same, both from a technical and a fundamental perspective, that’s where we get asymmetrical wins.

 

So order flow stacking is essentially how long has order flow been going into that stock. Is it a day, a week, a couple of months?

 

Is it a year? And is it infected the sector? So we kind of take a look at this picture again. It’s very different for 1 stock in technology To have higher highs, higher lows to see demand, to see volume.

 

But when you start to see that that sector has over 60 stocks with stacked order flow And you start to break it down even deeper into the percentage of stocks, all of the stocks in that sector, it becomes a different Picture.

 

And now, again, we’re starting to add to the conviction. So I want to get this again super super clear.

 

The better job you do with the data David’s talking about tonight, with the principles that I’m talking about right now with order flow stacking, The better job you do of coming up with reasons to validate the risk, the longer you’ll be in the business As long as you kick out the ones that aren’t working and understand how and when to add to the ones that are.

 

It’s not a complicated business. It’s the data you’re using to make those decisions and making sure you actually implement what the data is telling.

 

Again, we all know we’ve moved our stop loss at some point, so So we’re not listening to what the actual data is telling us.

 

Alright? So order flow stacking principles, the whole point of this is building an argument to increase conviction and ideas that you like. Alright. Smart money demand is also known as order flow.

 

Institutions build positions over days, weeks, and months. Order flow stacking is a new and different way to buy stocks that the big players, the institutions are putting their own capital into. So think about that.

 

We are not predicting what’s going to happen next. We are simply shadowing them. Order flow stacking identifies which stocks they’re buying, How long they’ve been buying and when they’ve stopped. That’s the power of order flow stacking.

 

When you combine order flow stacking With knowing what you’re looking for with good fundamentals, you have a complete package from start to finish of I know exactly what I’m looking for, now I just need to know if that Story remains the same.

 

So order post stacking technically allows us to shadow the smart money.

 

Now I’m just going to come back on the screen here because this is really important. Too many people believe that the only way to make money on Wall Street is know where the stock is going to be in 6 months.

 

We don’t have that data. Nobody Has that data. We have all the data in front of us now. We can make the best decision right now, and then our job really is to determine, is it still valid?

 

Whether it’s valid in the fundamentals, whether it’s valid in the macro, or whether it’s valid on the technical part, that’s our part of the equation. We have no idea what’s going to happen next.

 

Nobody Knows what’s going to happen next. But everybody has the same data or better data from David to determine whether or not it’s still valid, and that’s really the power of workflow stacking.

 

It’s really determining is that story still in play. That’s the big thing we want to get across. Okay? Alright. So it’s easier to pay attention than it is to predict that.

 

That’s a I would highly recommend that you actually take a snapshot of that chart of this screenshot, because this part right here is probably the part that shatters a lot of limiting beliefs for people.

 

Alright. So this is kind of fun here too also. This is actually, ironically, just from a couple of days ago from From Investors Business Daily.

 

And I really just want to kind of really cement this, point home. Right? Institutional investors are responsible for the majority trading in stocks.

 

That’s right. Probably not shocking. Right? But this is really the part that I talk about. Mutual funds, pension funds, and hedge funds that have 1,000,000,000 of dollars of buying power.

 

Once a large fund decides Just to buy stock, they’ll spend weeks months purchasing until their position is filled, and that’s exactly what we just talked about Here.

 

So all we’re doing is we’re giving a visual representation to what’s actually happening behind the scenes. Now I’m going to come back on the screen here for a second.

 

I just Really hope everybody understands what we’re talking about. David has the fundamental research. People buy his research to go out to the market and make decisions, then they allocate their capital.

 

What we are now doing is taking it a step further with the fundamental data and understanding how to read the order flow on price charts.

 

We’re now combining, is that valid and is it still happening? That’s where trading and investing becomes immensely easier Because here’s the quote that I want you to write down.

 

When you know what you’re looking for, you’re never lost. The challenge is not enough people actually go and say, what am I actually looking for?

 

So So what we’re kind of doing now is we’re putting the pieces together for you to say, I know what I’m looking for, and it’s either there or it’s not, or it’s there and it’s still valid. It’s there or it’s changed.

 

That’s where the markets become probably one of the most fun world’s greatest business you could ever possibly run because you know what you’re doing, not because you’re hoping to be lucky, And that’s really the whole point we want to get across here.

 

K? Alright. So thank you for IBD with that very recent, Heck, exclamation. So now risk management, job number 1.

 

Right? Super, super important. You’re going to hear me talk about this a lot. Nothing matters if you don’t have risk management. You’re not going to be in the business long enough if you don’t have risk management.

 

So write that down. Right? So risk management, money management, amount of capital allocated to the idea, typically a percentage of capital. Risk management is not money management. So many people get these 2 things confused.

 

They’re not the same thing. So we could start here and talk about a percentage of capital and money management. It’s how much of your total allocation are you looking to put into a particular idea.

 

Risk management is how you choose to allocate that capital based on the Quality of the idea. Now I’m going to come back on the screen because this is a really important point that I want to get across.

 

Too many people in the market who don’t have enough experience think that wins And opportunities are linear, that every single opportunity is the same. They’re not.

 

When you get better at reading the information that David’s He’s talking about when you get better at shadowing the institutions like I’m talking about and reading the tape, which is what I specialize in, you will start to make distinctions That 2 charts might look identical, but you might see things differently because now you’re seeing them with more experienced eyes.

 

This is where the difference between money management and risk management has to be Part of what we do.

 

Risk management might be sizing up a little bit more on your initial entry because you might be at the perfect spot, Have the perfect story and it hasn’t caught a headline yet. And how do you identify some of those things?

 

Well, there’s ways of doing that and I kind of take you behind the scenes just a little bit here right now, just to show you how I do some of the research for our community behind the scenes where, obviously, this is what you just looked at.

 

We’re scanning for institutional volume on a day in and day out Basis, we’re tracking the leaders in every sector. We’re tracking the rotation from one day to the week to the month, From 1 week to the next.

 

And, by the way, if you’re not doing this, you absolutely need to know how much was available over a certain period of time Before you start to beat yourself up about how much you made because it should maybe 1 particular period of time was amazing and you did well, But then another the following period of time was tough and you’re beating yourself up.

 

One of the biggest things when you are judging your results Has to come back to what was actually available, not just the random number you picked out of the air tonight.

 

I’d have to make that much. No. You have to make that much based on what’s available.

 

So if we go back to what we said before about asymmetrical wins, when you are stacking the reasons for that idea fundamentally and from an order flow perspective, This is where when you do this kind of work, this is where you actually start to position yourself because you have the research in front of you and you have the right mindset to use it properly.

 

Look. There’s a 1000000000 YouTube videos. It’s not more information you need. What you need to understand is how to use it better. And I think, obviously, that’s proven by how many videos are out there.

 

Ironically, we’re doing a YouTube video. Right? Right? Alright. Okay. So more risk management. Some ideas are simply better and demand a bigger initial position. So how do you know that?

 

That’s the whole point of we want to get across. How do you know when something is better And demands a bigger initial position size. That’s what we call building an argument. So initial position size and a plan for building a position.

 

This is a must. Understanding how and when to build a position if you should be building more into a position, Including when to add shares, which is typically a volatility metric.

 

Now what’s important about a volatility metric is that’s based on the individual stock, which is really important. Now position management. Building positions and the profit maximizer. K.

 

Alright. Position building. Our goal is to add shares in a planned manner while following a system that determines if the idea remains valid. I just can’t say this strongly enough, but I just want to keep saying this over and over again.

 

Your number one job is to get the information that you believe in, Such as David’s research, we’re talking about right now with order flow stacking shadowing the institutions.

 

You need to be answering the question all the time, is it still valid, Provided it’s obvious in the 1st place.

 

If it’s obvious, then it’s a question of working your way into that position and paying attention to whether or not it’s still valid.

 

Not having an answer to whether or not it’s still valid is where a small fortune gets lost because you don’t have that decision in the 1st place.

 

K? Alright. Any shares accumulating, again, we just talked about accumulation as, IBD just wrote, is done by scaling up Into a winning position.

 

This is very intentional here, winning position. Alright? Scaled entries are validated by positive price action. Scaled entries are best accomplished by using a volatility metric or a percentage move.

 

That’s obviously very personal whether you want to do based on average True range or percentage of volatility, where the VIX is, by the way, that’s also another one, or a percentage move.

 

Okay? PVD, we’re actually going to talk about that, in just a couple of minutes.

 

We’re we’re actually going to talk about 5 minutes. We’re going to give you a chance to, get the research. Okay? Alright. So using volatility smooths out the entry based on each stock’s unique price action.

 

It just goes to say, Certain stocks might have a volatility of 5, other stocks might have volatility of 25. You can’t trade them the same way. You can’t invest in the same way because the risk is different based on the volatility.

 

Now maximizing profits. This is really a big part we’re talking about here right now because you can have really big profits on the trade even if you think NVIDIA’s, overvalued right now.

 

There still needs to be a point where you’re saying the story is not valid anymore or This oh, it’s still valid. You need some sort of metric that tells you that.

 

If you don’t believe that, think about all of the profits that you had when the What what happened in the world, the the crisis where if the world was shut down, some of these Internet stocks after we bottomed out rallied up 5, 6, $700 and all the way down to 40.

 

Raise your hand if you would like to have had a system or decision making process in place to book those profits at certain Point.

 

That’s the key here. Alright? Okay. Alright. Stories change, industries change, economic conditions change, and so do the reasons for investments.

 

This is the part that I believe that most people miss Is the reasons change. Need to determine what kind of profits you’re going after is the only way to know if your investment remains valid.

 

This is very important. If you’re not sure what kind of profit you’re going after, how could you know if the story’s still valid?

 

Billions are lost each year without a plan for making new decisions, Could be a change in fundamentals, which could typically be guidance.

 

Could be a change in competition, where you’re going to see that sales and margin. So again, We’re talking about the story changing and just giving you some ideas of what that story changing is about.

 

No change Equals no sale. You’re hanging on to that idea, but fundamental changes require action. Again, they don’t move as quickly, But you still need to be on top of it.

 

Right? Could be technical breaking below the 200 period moving average. So, basically, what we’re giving here are just a super high level Decision making metric to change if this changes.

 

Okay? So selling on the way down, this is actually a very big Important part of it. Great investors do not pick a price to exit on the way up. You want to write that down.

 

Very, very important. Alright? At some point, when the fundamentals change or the Story changes, again, what we just showed you, quantitative easing when the market topped out in 2022, and new decision needs to be considered.

 

Okay? At what point is the decline too deep? For example, moving averages can help make profitable exit formulaic, moving average crossovers as well, Breaking significant reference points such as a new 100 day low.

 

Now I want to come back here and I just want to, I want to those are just some higher Thought process things for determining when to get out of the stock, whether or not it’s overvalued or not.

 

If I could tell you some of the stories of people that came into our community that were Printing money on the way up in 2022 and crying how much they gave back on the way down. The stories are so dramatic.

 

I I can’t even, I can’t even I wouldn’t want to repeat them for personal reasons because I want to protect the people that came into our community, but what I want to say is and, David, if I can just maybe get your opinion on this, For people that say stocks always go up and I never need to sell, what would you say to somebody like that?

 

Again, not financial advice. This is our 2 guys talking. Yeah. This is by no means none of this is meant to be financial advice.

 

We are not at all advisers or anything. You need to do your own work here, which is just commenting in general markets. Yeah. No. I mean, stocks don’t always go up. I mean, look at the meme stocks.

 

Look at all those IPOs in 2021 that went up and crashed right back down. The market does tend to go up over time, but it also has some very long periods of underperformance, typically followed by long periods of outperformance.

 

We’ve seen about a 20 year run here, you know, except for, you know, a little bit divot there for the great financial crisis and even steeper divot For the for COVID.

 

So, we think we’ve gotten to a place where risk management, and the acknowledgment acknowledgment of risk, right, which is what I think what you’re saying, Pete, is so valuable, is de minimis.

 

It’s gone away. Nobody really even understands risk.

 

They don’t want to believe they don’t want to believe in risk. Wall Street doesn’t want you to believe in risk, and that typically sets up for some real pain in the long run because We don’t live in a world without risk, Pete.

 

There is no such thing as anything perfect. There’s no such thing with all upside and no downside.

 

Everything has a cost. Everything is ultimately grounded in reality and fundamentals, and we’ve been disconnected for a long time. It’s only a matter of time before we have a A a reversal. K. So let’s let’s, continue.

 

What we talked about tonight, obviously, is getting a chance to work with myself and David to Get David’s research to get my research, to actually work with us in private training as well as in coaching, so we’re actually going to hop into that, now as well.

 

Right? But profit management, choosing 1 is more important than which one. I can’t get across this Deeply enough.

 

It doesn’t matter what system you are using to determine to take profits. At some point, you have to decide if this is how I’m going to book For the valid story is no longer valid, and this is really the most important point.

 

It doesn’t matter which one you use, but you need to have a system that tells you when you should Keep managing those profits and how. Hoping means you no longer control the trade.

 

That’s a big part of what goes on, new members of commit to our community, waiting for the market to build them out. Don’t worry about what happens after you sell the spheres, cost more investors a small fortune than any concept.

 

I can’t I can’t get this across strongly enough because this is a really big Conversation that we have in coaching calls. People don’t get out of losing positions out of the fear that after they get out, it might reverse.

 

Probably one of the costliest, silliest mistakes you could possibly make, by holding on, but they’re worried about if The losing position continues to go down and reverses after they get out and not concerned with what if it keeps going down, which is what actually happened in 2022.

 

So instead of thinking about what happens if I get out and it goes back up, that’s not how pros think. Pros manage risk first because your capital is the number one thing that you need To pay capital’s your inventory.

 

So if it does start to go down, you get out, start a new position. If you sell roofs, they sell, sell without regret. That’s a really big part of the markets. And, again, It I touched on this briefly before.

 

I had a trading firm. I’ve been with trading with hired thousands of people to manage my capital over the years. The number one reason people washed out in this business is because they don’t respect risk by a mile.

 

It’s not information. It’s not a strategy. It it is respecting risk and getting your ego out of the equation to pull the plug on an idea that doesn’t work or is not working.

 

And it doesn’t even mean it was a bad idea. It might just be one of the parts of the probability that doesn’t follow through.

 

If you haven’t heard me say it before, a trading loss is a business expense. Get over it. If it’s not working out, kick that trader out. Done. Alright? Okay. Alright.

 

Having rules and following is where everybody wants consistency and too far too many people don’t understand that that consistency comes from actually following the rules in the 1st place, So the consistency is up to you, not the market.

 

That’s the big point that I want to get across.

 

Alright. So the recap of of what we talked about tonight, Value profit blueprint is both fundamentals as well as working those positions. Investing value concepts, David went through Four concepts there.

 

Value investing examples, we talked about JPMorgan and NVIDIA. Macro principles, don’t fight Ed and certain sectors performed better in certain parts of the economic and business cycle.

 

Sector rotation, In sync with the economic and the business cycle, order flow stacking principles where we shadow the institutions that are actually allocating their money, Got into the significance of risk management and position management, which is very different from money management, Right?

 

Adding to winners, having a system for doing that, and then also for, taking profits.

 

So, David, what we’re about To do now is, as we said at the beginning of today’s call, we’re actually going to talk about an opportunity to work with us. We are about to launch right now, right this very minute.

 

We’re going to launch A 4 month program where David and I are going to get into the weeds on teaching all of this in a very, Personal way, we’re going to have private coaching and private training, starting actually next week and running through the coaching program, it’s going to run right through April.

 

We’re also going to talk about how to get the research, from both myself and David, and work with myself and David. Just to be clear, we’re not handing you off Somebody else is going to be working with us.

 

So if everything we talked about tonight is something that you’d be interested in investing in yourself, that’s actually what we’re going to talk about right now.

 

Okay. And if you want to learn more about this or if you want to get started, there’s actually a link in the description below the video, to click through and learn about all of this stuff.

 

And if you have any questions, There’s also customer support in the description, so that you can follow-up with us if you have anything, that you’d like to ask before you get started.

 

Okay. So, David, I’m actually just going to pull this up and we’re going to go through, what we are calling the value Accelerator, which is a multi month program.

 

So 4 months of training and coaching with myself and David, 12 month membership in the newsletter value profit Monthly, which comes out once a month, and 12 months access to New Constructs research.

 

So I just want to stop on there just for one second.

 

So what we’re talking about is working personally with myself and David in a group atmosphere, getting the research from us, and then having coaching from us Over the next 4 months starting, December through April.

 

I want to be clear about that. It’s not with somebody else, it’s with us personally. K. Alright. So what does that look like?

 

The Value Profit Accelerator, 4 sessions of live training and actually here’s the dates, 2 before the holidays and 2 dates after the holidays. We have a new curriculum that obviously David and I put together for this Very intentionally.

 

Live sessions both with myself and with David, which includes the value investing road map, Properly interpreting the new construct’s research.

 

We’re going to talk about in just a second how to get that research as a part of this and order flow stacking principles.

 

I’m going to go into a deep dive on sector rotation and how I shadow the institutions that are buying David’s research that ultimately allocate their money to the market And building positions and taking profits.

 

So this is actually a new road map for using the fundamental research, Finding undervalued stocks and then learning how to work and build your positions the same way that institutions, accumulate their positions.

 

K? Next, we have the coaching sessions. There’s 4 coaching sessions in February, March, and excuse me, 3.

 

There’s February, March, And April. It’s actually 3 sessions, not 4. At the 1st Tuesday of each of those months, both February, March, and April, member q and a featuring live sessions with both myself and David.

 

So, again, there’s a lot of questions here tonight. This is the kind of stuff that you’re going to be able to ask us in a little bit more personal, And we’ll be able to get you into, detailed, answers as well.

 

Exclusive member portal to post questions before the attending, and I want to be clear about this. This is actually something that’s Unique to the way that we do coaching, which is we don’t reteach anything.

 

Essentially, what we are doing is we are asking you, How can we help you right now post those questions and then we do a deep dive into custom answering your question?

 

That’s really, really important. A lot of coaching programs, you kind of kind of get lost in the sauce and you’re afraid to ask a question.

 

The way that we do it is you really think about what is your challenge right now, Whether it’s the fundamental side or the actual position managed side, ask those questions, then we will give you customized suggestions or feedback based on where you are.

 

And the The reason that’s important is everybody, as you can see in the questions here, comes to the market with very different experience levels.

 

So everybody’s going to have different experience, which is going to be different questions, which really makes the coaching phenomenal because of the depth of the of the questions. K?

 

Okay. Live training archive and coaching call archives. So everything that we do, you’re going to be able to watch at your leisure, includes outlines and transcripts of each session which actually is a different way of learning, as well.

 

Alright? Also for those of you that move forward with us, you’re going to actually be able to Download everything that we do, not just have them in the education portal. That’s a $2,000 value on its own.

 

Mhmm. Log training, video downloads, Coaching video downloads, audio downloads, and the transcript of the PDF. So again, if you were at the beginning of the call just tonight, you absolutely know We have a ton of experience.

 

What we’re actually giving you at this particular point if you move forward with us is lifetime access to all of the training that we’re talking about now to Download and put it on your computer.

 

That’s a really big deal. Okay. Okay. So working further now, this is really where the research starts to work its Twaying into a 12 months of New Constructs research.

 

1st is the most attractive stocks list, list of 20 highest rated large In mid cap stocks, 20 highest graded small cap stocks as well.

 

Stocks make our most attractive list because they have high quality economic earnings, High return on invested capital, cheap valuations based on the New Constructs data.

 

Okay? Assets satellite, large cap, mid cap, and small cap, Twenty of them, strategy, long, and value, and the performance 8. 7 annualized section, And you can see the dates here.

 

Published monthly for the 1st week of each month. So this is 12 months of New Constructs’ most attractive stocks, And that’s actually the retail value, but that’s how it’s going to be today.

 

And some more research from New Constructs, stock trader 50, Superior investment ratings in over 10,000 stocks, ETFs, and mutual funds. So it’s actually a couple of questions being asked tonight.

 

Track daily changes in ratings for up to Fifty tickers in your portfolio. That’s important right there. Simplify the complex world of fundamental analysis with just a few clicks.

 

You saw David working his way through the system there before. Invest smarter with proven superior analysis of the footnotes. That’s a big part of David’s work right there.

 

David, before we move forward, any comments or anything you want to talk about with those Two things, stock trader 50 of most attractive stocks. It’s a very complimentary, subscription package.

 

The stock tracker 50 gives you a Streamline access to our ratings. You’ll get all the details that I showed you for the professional and institutional data, but you get the takeaway. You get the benefit of all the work.

 

She’ll get all the details. That’s really for professionals, we think, where you know the actual return on invested capital, all the trends, and all the data, things that Wall Street analysts spends 1,000,000 of dollars.

 

Wall Street firms spend 1,000,000 of dollars a quarter building. And then on top of that, giving you the most attractive stocks.

 

And well, that gives you the benefit of a screener. That’s a curated prescreen set of stocks that we, with our experience over the last 25, 30 years, put together, and we call it the most attractive stocks in the market for a reason.

 

Twenty large cap, 20 small cap. Great list. Updated monthly. It’s a great package where you can get access to ratings on Stocks, ETFs, and mutual funds. Right?

 

So people asking about ETFs on the New Constructs ETF. Yes. We’re going to do a New Constructs ETF. Until we get it out there, though, You can evaluate all ETFs out there through our lens to make sure they’re holding attractive stocks.

 

So getting that ability to look at all the ratings, Track 50 secondurities at a time and then get a prescreen curated list of stocks updated monthly.

 

That’s, that’s an extremely, we think, valuable Track package? Again, it it it would cost a firm, a Wall Street firm, $1,000,000 a quarter just to do the work to maintain the models And analyze all the filings to produce our research.

 

  1. So let’s continue with everything that is, included in the accelerator. 12 months new contracts research. That’s the stock trader 50 that David just went over.

 

Both of them stocks trader 50 as well as the other one. Again, that’s 539 for the year, so it’s almost $1200 almost $1100 just for those 2 alone, and then we have value profits monthly.

 

It combines interestingly in research from new constructs and my order flow stacking process, and that actually will start for everybody who signs up and comes into the coaching program with us that starts in January.

 

And you can see David give a little bit of an insight into some of the things that are going to be in that As well. And that’s $25100 per year, just that alone, that research which is combining our 2 ways of looking at the markets.

 

So, again, the entire, value investing accelerated that we’re talking about here tonight, basically, everything together is over $85100 if you went out and got this retail. But to sign up, again, this is the founding price.

 

We’ll never see this price again. I want to be super clear about this. We want to get this off the ground. We want to have some success stories. We want to have some really nice relationships with everybody.

 

It’s 2 payments of $995, and here’s really the Thank we want to really put our money where our mouth is. So the 1st payment is whenever you sign up, and, again, this starts on 13th, and the 2nd payment is not until January 11th.

 

So So you can go through the entire live training with us before you even make the 2nd payment so that we could really show that we have, our stuff, and we have it all in order for you.

 

So 4 training sessions, 3 coaching sessions, so essentially covering 4 months of time between myself and David.

 

This is probably one of the biggest parts here where we can help you personally with what your struggles are now and help you get to that next spot.

 

Lifetime access to download all of the training, which includes all of the live training, all of the coaching session to download once you over with us.

 

12 months of David’s research that we just went over and a 12 month subscription to value profit monthly. Again, Retail, go to the websites, you get all this stuff.

 

It’s $85100. Founding members only, 2 payments of $995. And look, we’re looking for some people that really want to change their life, who really want to invest in themselves, and that’s really what we’re talking about right now.

 

So So you can see everything that’s on here. David, I’m going to come back on the screen. We’re just going to touch on this for a second.

 

2 Two payments of $995 for somebody to get 50 years of our experience together, coaching with us, training with us, and 12 months worth of research For 2 payments of $995, it’s practically a steal, really.

 

I mean, yeah. You had a hard time convincing me to do this, Pete, because it’s a it’s a really good deal, and, but I’m with it. I’m with you because I believe in what you’re doing, and I believe in in your audience.

 

I believe in our combined capabilities, and I think we’re going to do be able to create an enormous amount of value for the people today that’s going to translate into word-of-mouth and referrals.

 

They’re going to make this Worth our time. And I want to be super clear. This is not a picture I know. This is the founder’s, opportunity. It will never be this Price again. I want to be super clear about that.

 

So get involved and take advantage of this now. If everything we talked about tonight makes sense to you and you want to work with us personally, Two payments of $995, and we’re going to get started actually in a week.

 

So between now and, 13th, Teeth, make a decision on investing yourself. We’d absolutely love to see you on the other side.

 

If you have any follow-up questions about Either the accelerator or anything we discussed tonight related to joining us, there is new Constructs, support, And stock trading pro support also in the description below the video.

 

So click down there if you have any questions for us, and we’ll get back to you as soon as possible, and also the link in there as well below the video to get started and reserve your spot in the accelerator as well.

 

So if anybody actually has any questions, we could stick around for a couple of questions. If not, David, we’re going to call it tonight.

 

People can watch the replay and, Watching at their own pace, but hopefully get signed up soon because, once once we get started, there’s not going to be a chance to sign up later, And I can guarantee you, we’re on video right now.

 

I can guarantee you. This is only a founder’s, investment.

 

We’re never going to be doing it at this, investment The price again. I want to be clear about that. We stick to our work. That’s not a pitch. This is people who take action, that’s who’s going to get involved tonight.

 

Okay. Alright, David. It looks like most people are going to end up emailing customer support with any questions, so why don’t we just call it a night? Anybody who wants to, they could click at the link into the description.

 

Click through to either ask us further questions about the program or click through to get your spot. Like we said, only 2 payments in 9. 95. We’re going to get started with that tonight.

 

K? Alright, everybody. Have an awesome night, David. Thank you so much. Really appreciate that. Click that link in the description. Get started tonight. We hope to see everybody next week on 13th. Alright? Thank you so much, everybody.