FOREX Update:  Weakness in USD Pairs 8-16-23

  1. Introduction

– Matt greets everyone and introduces today’s coaching call to discuss trading ideas

  1. Review of USD Trades

– Discusses the UC trade idea and the importance of the 1.35 level– Price built a base above 1.35 after initially falling below it– Look for pullbacks to retest 1.35 and continue higher

Summary: The UC trade held the 1.35 support level. Look for pullbacks to buy into this trade idea.

III. Weakness in Other USD Pairs

– Discusses bearish price action in GBPUSD, EURUSD, AUDUSD, and NZDUSD due to dollar strength– Points out key support levels to monitor for potential bounces– Emphasizes the importance of consistent analysis and identifying momentum

Summary: Other dollar pairs are showing weakness against the dollar’s strength. Key support levels are noted to watch for bounces.

  1. Trader Psychology and Strategy

– Explains the importance of using common indicators and being patient– Discusses stop placement, risk management, and avoiding chasing trades– Notes the difference between going short in forex vs stocks

Summary: Patience and proper stop placement is critical. Avoid chasing trades and overtrading. Manage risk appropriately.

  1. Market Outlook and Final Comments

– Previews upcoming retail sales reports for the pound and potential impact– Encourages questions and discussion in Discord– Closes with offering to be a resource for traders’ development

Summary: Important data releases to watch this week. Feel free to ask questions and engage in Discord. Focus on improving as a trader.

Video Summary

The video discusses the analysis of a trading chart and provides insights into the current market trends and potential trading opportunities. Matt starts by mentioning a trend line that was previously identified and explains that the price has pushed above this trend line, indicating a potential bullish trend. However, the price was initially rejected at this level due to traders recognizing the trend line and expecting a pullback.

Matt emphasizes the importance of understanding market indicators and following the same strategies as other traders. They explain that traders are likely to view the trend line as a point of resistance, causing the price to consolidate before potentially continuing its upward movement. Matt points out a red candle on the chart, indicating a potential breather for the price before it resumes its upward momentum.

Next, Matt discusses the specific trading idea for the UJ (US dollar/Japanese yen) currency pair. They describe the chart as showing complete and absolute bullishness, with the price continuously reaching new highs. They highlight the significant increase in price over a short period and emphasize the opportunity to capitalize on such momentum.

Matt mentions that in their Discord community, they emphasize bullish ideas and reasons behind them, as they want traders to feel comfortable and confident in their trading decisions. They also mention that they provide bearish ideas for more advanced traders and emphasize the importance of being open-minded and adaptable to different market conditions.

Lastly, Matt mentions upcoming economic data, specifically the retail sales report for the pound currency. They explain that the report is expected to show a significant drop, which could potentially impact the pound’s value. They suggest that traders who are bearish on the pound may find this report as an opportunity to profit while they sleep, as the report is an overnight idea.

In conclusion, the video provides insights into the current market trends, specifically focusing on the UJ currency pair and the potential for a bullish trend. Matt emphasizes the importance of understanding market indicators, following the strategies of other traders, and being open-minded to different trading opportunities. They also mention the upcoming retail sales report for the pound as a potential trading opportunity.

Good afternoon, everyone greetings. Greetings. Greetings. Today is what we’re going to do here on August 16th here at 6, we’re going to have our coaching call. If you guys have any questions. As you come in, please feel free to leave those questions that you may have here in the chat space. And we will get to those questions as soon as we are able.

What we want to start off with, is we want to start off with looking at the dollar. So we have the dollar here on the screen for us 1st.

And with the dollar what we have is we have here for the dollar one of the areas that we called out to date that the dollar needed to remain above. So if you are looking as well on your device you are going to want to pull up D X Y. And so what we have here is the area that we called out is the 1 0 3.

2 43. And so what we were saying is that we needed to close above here . So all this is and all this mean is that it is closing above prior highs. Not only that price bill, so we had the dip that took place here. With this dip, it bounced out of the dip, so we needed it to build upon this base here.

So we said that we needed the price to be here. Price not only got back to this area, but price also pushed above this area and then continued above. This area retreated off of the highs because our lettered inside of Discord that when the price pushed up, that it made it one 1000. Away from the prior highs that it had made and price still closed up here at the highs for the week.

So price closed up here at the highest for the week. That is for those are further signs of bullishness. And so what you have here is you have again, this area was the area that I was saying needs to continue to hold. So if you are a person who still hasn’t entered into this trade for whatever reason that may be you still aren’t into this trade.

You want to enter into this trade on the pullback. So there should be a pullback to be expected here. As far as coming back to hold these highs. So for this pullback that should come back to this one or three twenty four area, you should be a buyer at that time and then be able to take this price action straight.

That to these highs and as price looks to see if they can bounce out of these highs that it had at the top of the week and then coming back to recreate and retest the same highs. And so that’s what we’re looking for from the dollar.

That’s what we’re looking at for the dollar. We also had because we’re talking about all of our U. S. D. trades and our U. S. D. ideas. We had the U. C. idea. And so for the U. C. idea, I wanted to check that 1 out, check and see if you guys have any questions that you posted just yet. And so for the U. C. idea.

What we have here is we have the UC idea of being above that critical 135 area that we talked about. For the UC idea, we talked about the 135 area and so with this idea again, we had at the top of the week price action seeking to push up. To the 1 35 area after having the 1 35 began to fan of it.

The price action began to fan of it and then got a little bit weaker here but not pushing and making and creating higher highs even after that. And then the price began to drop. As far as underneath the 135 area, but after that, we reclaimed the 135 area. And after reclaiming the 135 area price has continued to build from there.

That’s what we have for this 135 area. Again. For this area, we should be able to get price being able to, if you are not inside of this trade, being able to get price to come back down to reconfirm the strength that is in this area and then continue up, continue with strength up as it retest that 135 area and showing the strength that it has there.

So again what we see for the UC idea is because of all of the strength that we’ve been seeing with the dollar. Very strong. It’s seeing highs that it has not seen in a very long time. So if we go back over here, just so we can see everything inside of his context out of the proper context we see what the dollar has been doing.

And so we see these highs here. So it closed here. This was back last month. This was back in July. Price is moving back up here. So we’re talking about where can the dollar go again? The dollar has already been up here earlier this year. So that’s why it’s going to be really important to continue to keep this in mind and continue to monitor this.

Because as we’re seeing for the UC idea, what we see here is we see that this 135 was a critical area because when this area was lost before, Price absolutely flushed through it. Price absolutely flushed through this 135 area when it was acting as support, or when it was supposed to act as support for the UC idea.

That didn’t happen, and when that didn’t happen the price absolutely broke down from there. And so that’s what we ended up getting from this chart. And so now what you have is, you have the ideas of the idea here of the uc making it back above that 1 35 area and seeking to build a base so that it can continue up.

Remember, this thing can really fly high. It can go. To the next major quarter area. It also almost made it back up to the 1 40 area. So this thing can really go once it builds the strength that’s necessary. It can go those 500 pips back up to that 1 40 area. So this is on watch. We are watching the UC idea to see if this idea can continue to build on the momentum that it has been building on.

And so that is going to be really important there. And so what we have next is going to be the G U idea. So we have the G U idea. So for the G U idea, we have this idea trending in the opposite direction. And so the reason why when we talk about the next four pairs, we’re talking about trending in the opposite direction is because they are showing weakness.

On the dollar strength because the dollar is paired against them. The dollar is being paired against them. And that’s what we have here for the GU idea. So we have this weakness here for the GU idea. If I take and I show how consistent this weakness has been. We have this if you would, this breakdown that ended up occurring here, and then we have this pop up here with that we have a complete and absolute continuation that has taken place here again.

This goes back to the middle of July with the middle of July. What you can do then is we can see this pivot point that has occurred here. And so we take that pivot here. And then we redraw here, which is why this showed the weakness that it showed there. But also what you have is you have the weakness that was shown here, but then on the reverse side of it, once it does make it through, it has to come back down and retest and show itself to really have strength on the other side of this move.

That is the thing about trend lines. So trend lines Are very solid trend lines. And the reason why trend lines are very solid is because of the fact that traders use them. So we’re seeking to understand price action. What’s going on? What’s taking place? Traders are using trend lines to do that.

They’re using support. They’re using moving averages. So we want to use what other individuals are using. Because as we do that, what we’re able to do is best position ourselves and trade ideas that make sense. We’re able to best position ourselves and trade ideas that make sense when we do that. If we try to just be novel and do something that we’re the only ones doing, you’re going to find not not much success because of the fact that you’re doing something that no one else is doing.

And so with that it’s going to be very hard for you to find the level of success that you’re looking to find. But when you’re using the same indicators that traders worldwide are using, you’re able to see. What’s taking place and able to profit off of it. So we have here this trend line that has been taking place.

And so with this trend line, it did break out of this trend line, but it also had this resistance area that it was able to close above and then the very next calendar that lost it and the very next kind of push back up. But again, it didn’t make those same highs. So showing weakness up here. So selling, big selling and then ended up selling off again, pushing back up, but it didn’t make this high.

So at first it didn’t make these highs. Then the high got lower and then the high got lower. And so that’s the trend that you have right now for the pound dollar pair. So for the G U idea, you have that idea continuing to trend down as it is seeking to establish a base here. So if you look. It’s looking to establish a base here at this 1, 27 5 area.

So at this 1, 27, 5 area is seeking to establish a base so that it can build price action up above this area. If not, this area will break down. And when this area breaks down. The first area that you’re going to be looking for is that 126. 2 that 126. 2 area because of the fact that’s where it came down before and found support and then it came down again to that same area found support.

If it breaks down as far as from the weekly open, that’s where you can expect to be a buyer, except for other buyers to show up. What we have next is going to be the EU idea. The EU idea, which is breaking down. And again, it tried to do the same thing and we talked about this one earlier.

And the reason why was because of the hourly chart. On the hourly chart for the pair, what you had is you had the 100 and 200 people averages acting as support on the hourly chart. Over here for the EU idea, you didn’t have that. You have all of the moving averages because of how quickly this thing has been falling.

You have all of the moving averages, even on the hourly chart above it, pushing this price action further and further down. So that’s why you’re getting this sort of a reaction and response. Whereas we see the EU and GU ideas usually synced up and in sync and in unison that’s the reason why you don’t have these ideas still in sync and still in unison is because of the fact that this idea is below all of his moving averages.

It doesn’t have anything to continue to monitor and hold those support areas. The area that you are going to be looking for this 1 to find a base, find a home is going to be this 1 0 8. Four areas, this 1 0 8, 4 area. This 1 0 8 five area is where you’re going to be looking for this one to find a home, to really build a base for the EU idea.

So for the EU idea, that’s what we’re seeing. That’s what we’re looking at is we’re looking for that one to build a base, to find a home there above that area. And we’ll look to assess that once it makes it down to this area, that 1 0 8 5. That one oh eight four area is where we’re looking for that one to make it to see if this will indeed hold and seek to build a base or if it will continue its descent because if it does not hold these areas here, it will and it should make its way down to that next.

Major quarter area, that next major quarter area being 1, 0, 7, 50, so 1, 0, 7, 5 for that next area. If 1, 0, 8, 5, 1, 0, 8, 4 does not hold for the EU idea next we have. The AU idea. So we talked again about how the AU and the NU ideas are usually in sync and we don’t get anything different right now.

So for the AU idea, this idea is being held up right now by that 64 250 area, which is a minor quarter area. So it’s a small minor quarter area off of the minor dime. So the minor dime being 64 cents. And 60 foot on the minor quarter on top of the 64 cents is going to be 64, 2 50. And so with that 64, 2 50, that is what is holding this support area as we speak.

So if you want to see that up close. I can show that to you, so 64 to 50. so for 64 to 50, looking at this area right here, this area right here holding. And so that’s why you have a low here of 6415. We’re talking about, we’re talking about 100 away and so that’s the difference that we’re talking about here as far as this area being the area that is acting as a temporary support for this price action and hopes to get this thing back up to the weekly open again.

You see how it bounced here and then it bounced right here. But again, keeping the same trend that it’s in. So that’s why if you do want to take those short positions. Thanks. Allow the price action to bounce against you a little bit to see so one, you’re minimizing your risk. So if you’re going short on an idea, the whole goal and the whole idea of you’re going short is for that idea to make it back close to those older highs that it had just made prior, but not make it all the way up there.

Because if you can get it to do that, and if you can get price action to confirm that, then you have an opportune short. If price action makes it back to those old highs and then pushes a little bit higher now you have a situation where you could have an opportunity short, but you’re now going to want to mitigate that risk because it just made brand new fresh highs.

An example would be here if it’s making these brand new fresh highs for the week. Now, this could be an opportune time to short, or this could be an opportune time to say, okay, if I want to short this, I need to see it, not make it above and then fill in the blank. Then what you’ll want to do is go back to that prior week and see, okay, how did the weekend?

So I’d be willing to take it to the very last ending price action if it doesn’t make it above that. So on Friday, the way that it ended was a high of 65 2 52. So now you’re saying, okay, 65, 2 52, would my stop loss. And now you see that it only made it up here as far as it’s 65 to 24, not 52. So now you’re talking about the area of 25, 000 of a difference, which is very close.

So if we’re talking about how close that is, we’re talking about this high being here. And then you see over here where. It’s just this little bit of space here. It’s just that little bit of space. But again, those types of things matter. We’re talking about how the week ended prior.

That’s going to be what you’re going to want to look at as far as your risk tolerance when you see a bounce that occurs outside because again, this is what is called a 3 candle. All the 3 candles simply means is that it has an. Upper wick and it has a lower wick that extends past the candle that was before.

So that means that the price made new highs and it made new lows, which is and layman’s terms are in simple terms. All this means is that it’s seeking to discover price. So now if you take that understanding and you say, okay, it’s seeking to discover price, it beat this high, which naturally would shake us out of the trade.

Now, if we’re looking to say no, I’m still bearish on the AU idea. Let me see what bearishness will look like with a push up that just happened like this. This extended width now what you would do with that is you’d say okay for this one Let’s go back and see okay How did the weekend prior because again, this is new week So let’s go back to the week prior because it’s making new highs for this week, but i’m bearish on it I came into this week bearish on it and i’m saying hey i’m bearish on this idea, but it’s making new highs What do I do with that?

So again, because this is a coaching call, we’re talking strategy. We’re talking how to think we’re talking like, what are you looking for these different trade ideas? What’s your processing? Because if you don’t have consistent processing, you’re never going to be able to be consistent as a trader.

You have to have a consistent way that you examine the market. And it’s through that consistent way that you examine the market, that you’re able to find profitable trade ideas consistently and repeated as a process that can be easily repeated. So again, it’s not a process that’s easy because you have to work for it, but it’s a process that is easily repeatable because of the fact that you do the same things over and you’re waiting for setups that make sense for you versus trying to force setups.

So that’s what we’re looking for when we’re looking at these different ideas. We’re looking at what makes sense. So now, okay, one trade idea didn’t work out. Why? Because we’re saying, okay, this high would take us out. Boom. This high took us out. We get the alert that we’re kicked out of the trade and we’re saying, okay, what happened for this trade?

Oh, this thing is still pushing up. Okay. Let’s see how the week ended. Okay. Let’s go back and look at how we end it? It ended right here. Hey, would I be willing to take it up to where the week was? No, because the week it kept pushing back down, so I’d be willing to take it to where the week ended. Where did the weekend?

And so this is where the week ended. And so now I’d be willing to take it to this high as far as to risk this very small amount in order to take it up to this high to see if I can get this price to retreat and for this price to come down to where it is that I want it. So if I can get this price to come down to where I want it.

And so we see the NU idea. We have for the n u idea, this price trending downward as well. This one acts as a repellent, and we talked about that before, is that whenever price action does break down on a major area, this major area being the major quarter area of 60 cent, whenever a major quarter area is broken as it is for this n u idea what you have is you have.

With that price action that major quarter area begins to act as a repellent So now it broke here and now that it broke is beginning to act as a repellent So it wants to come back up and try to test it wants to come back up wants to come back up wants to come back Up and it’s trying it’s doing its best.

It’s coming back up. It’s coming back up. It doesn’t quite make it drop down. It wants to come back up Wants to come back up, but it’s like a repellent against This major quarter area because it was broken. And so that’s what you will see as well Sometimes whereas other times you may have it actually touch that major, quarter area and it really depends on buyers So if you have it touching and slightly pushing above it’s because people are putting in buy stop orders And so when people have those buy stop orders in they’re saying hey if the price action makes it right, close to this particular area, I want to buy it because I want to be in this trade early before it makes it to this major quarter area.

But the only thing with that is if you do buy, if you have those buy stops and you have it as far as on a bearish idea, you’re going to get whipped out of that trade or you’re going to get into trade ideas that go against you very quickly and you’re going to keep. Taking those losses because you’re in a bearish trade idea, but you’re using a bullish strategy So a buy stop is a strategy that you want to use when you’re bullish on an idea And so you see literally people will place those order types For trade ideas thinking that they’re going to be the first ones inside of a breakout and it’s no breakout It’s just price action is moving above the weekly open.

So again, we have the weekly open here So above So we have all of these tests above but none of these can confirm So if you’re placing buy stops at right here above the week, because you want to be in the trade idea before it says the May the dime, again, that’s what we will call chasing a trade.

That’s chasing. We don’t chase trades. There are way too many trade ideas. There are way too many trade opportunities for us to trace, chase, trade ideas and trace, chase, trade opportunities. So what you have here is all you will need to do is to be patient because what’s going to happen, and it has to happen for buyers to really show up and push the price up the way that you want it to take place, is that if it does break out above this weekly open, it’s going to need to retest this weekly open and then continue to push up from there.

Same thing with the major quarter area. It needs to push up above that major quarter area, and then it’ll come back down and retest this area to then continue on this journey upward. So if things like that, you don’t chase ideas like this. That’s all this is. The reason why it keeps wicking above this weekly open and never holding except one time.

So 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. Nine already on the four hour chart this week and only one of the four hour candles closed above the weekly open. That’s called people getting faked out and having those buy stops in. That’s all this is. This price action is bearish for the new idea. And so you want to notice things like that.

You want to pay attention to things like that. So did you on a person that’s getting faked out thinking that something is reversing and it’s just beginning or it’s not even consolidating it because again, now we have low here. Low here, fresh new low here. And so it’s making fresh new lows and people are buying thinking, Oh if it can get above his weekly opening, then we can take that back up to the major Don area and build our momentum there.

Yes, that can happen. That’s not happening right now. You have to just be patient for the idea. The idea is still bearish. Last but not least, we look at the U. J. idea. And so here for the U. J. idea, we do have that idea that finally decided to push above this trend line that we pointed out earlier. Because again, when we saw the trade earlier, what happened for the trade is that the trade.

Push up and then it ended up getting rejected. The reason why I ended up getting rejected was because of the fact that again, I do things that traders do and have the same indicators that traders have. And so traders know that, Hey, if this thing has a trend line of rejection, as far as a bullish trend line, that is riding.

And every time it goes up there, it balances out, mellows out, and then explodes up. So now it hit, now you see this kind of nice red candle here. The reason why is because of the fact that traders are looking at this same chart, and they’re saying, hey, it’s time for this thing to get a breather.

And that’s exactly what it’s going to do, is get it done to get a breather. And then it’s going to more than likely continue up, because this is incredible momentum that this one has. As far as the UJ idea. So for the UJ idea, this is what we’re looking at. We’re looking at continued bullishness. Again, this one is already up in a major way this week.

And so we’re looking for that price action to continue. And so that’s what we see here for this UJ ideas complete and absolute bullishness on this chart. And this thing has just been demolishing price. If you just go back and you just look like this thing has just been demolishing price.

Like it’s just been taken out new high after new high. Remember, this was just at the end of July. So it was down here at the 140 area just at the end of July. It is up at 146 already here in the month of August. So August is about halfway through and it’s up 6. It’s up 6 in less than, in about half of a month.

And half of a month is up 6. Incredible woman, incredible movement. And so these are things that you want to be mindful of. You want to be able to see these ideas, see these plays, see what’s taking place, see what’s happening with them so that you can build strategies, build ideas off of these types of Plays and so that you can capitalize on them again.

That’s what it’s all about. That’s what it’s all for and so you want to make sure that you are one who is capitalizing on ideas that make sense and ideas that have momentum and ideas. That you feel comfortable trading, which is why what I’ll point out over in discord is I’ll point out those bullish ideas and I’ll emphasize those bullish ideas and the reasons why the reason why I’ll emphasize those bullish ideas that we have over and over in discord is because of the fact that I don’t want anybody to get caught up trying to do something that they don’t feel comfortable with.

Because in the same way that some people aren’t comfortable going short with stocks, the same thing happens as far as not for the same reasoning, because for the same, for reasoning with stocks is that you have to have a certain amount in your account. You have to be able to pay for what you’re going short, whereas you don’t have to do any of that with forex.

With forex, you’re just going, you’re just choosing to go short. You don’t have to have a certain amount of money. You have, you just choose what’s out of the trade you want to be on, which makes it so much easier. You just literally have to be right about what side of the trade you want to be on and you don’t have to have a certain amount of capital in order to go short.

And so that really evens the playing field for you as a trader. And so as a trader, though, you really have to open your mind and see what’s truly taking place on the chart. So that you may be able to use those things to your advantage, which is why I will point out when something is bearish and is just literally in a bearish flow.

I’ll point that out to you guys so that you guys can get some easy wins under your belt and in the same way and in like manner, I’ll do the same thing for charts that are completely and absolutely bullish. I’ll do the same. I’ll point those out so that you guys can get some easy wins. I will still point out as far as the other traders that are inside the community that want more advanced trades.

I will point those out as well. And that’s what we have here. These are all of our pairs. This is what we’ve been looking at this week as far as these, the different ideas. If you want to know what we’re looking for as far as the week continues we do have for the rest as far as for the rest of the week.

On Friday we have the pounds. Their retail sales. And so we just had our retail sales here for the U. S. And so we also have on Friday for the pound. We have their retail sales and that number is expected to drop and is expected to drop in a great way. So if you are. Bearish on the pound that should continue because there is a bearish report and the only, the last report that is expected for this week for the pound comes out on Friday and it’s an overnight idea.

So that’s one of the ones where you can wake up to some extra money inside of your account because of the idea of going in your favor while you were asleep. And again, this is how you multiply your account. This is how you grow your account. You just find consistent ideas and you stick with those ideas until the trend changes.

And then once the trend officially changes, then you change with that trend, always keeping a position while that trend is in motion so that you can capitalize on the full movement. Of a particular trade idea again, if you guys have any questions, please feel free to let me know those questions that you guys may have.

If you guys have comments, please feel free to leave those comments here inside the chat space. But also, as usual, I look forward to talking to you guys more inside. And sharing with you guys, there’s a discord, but always feel free to ask whatever questions you may have anything that may come up for you.

Any comments that you guys want to make, please feel free to leave those over in discord because discord is there for your education and is there for you to grow as a trader and to continue to develop as a trader as we seek to become the best possible traders. Again, I’m here for you guys. I’m here for you.

Your education. I’m here for you guys to continue to grow and develop. Please feel free to use me as a resource. There has been discord and I look forward to talking to you guys over there. All right. Take care.

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