Forex Trading Outlook | CPI Volatility On Tap 9-12-23

Outline

I. US Dollar (USD)

  • – Currently has a bullish outlook this week despite some pullback 
  • – Watch for CPI and inflation numbers this week which will impact USD
  • – Pullback sitting at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level on 4hr chart
  • – If this level holds, bullish outlook continues. If it breaks, more pullback expected.

II. Canadian Dollar (CAD)

  • – Bearish this week with no news events for CAD
  • – Potential opportunity for bullishness in CAD pairs like CADJPY

III. GBPUSD 

  • – Currently battling at major support around 1.2500
  • – If 12500 breaks, can come back down to weekly open
  • – Bearish outlook due to upcoming weak employment numbers for GBP

IV. GBPJPY

  • – Very bearish outlook based on technicals (7 consecutive closes below 200MA on 4hr chart)
  • – Fundamentally bearish as well, but no trade opportunity currently due to risk/reward ratio

V. EURUSD

  • – Potentially bullish counter-trend opportunity 
  • – 6 consecutive closes above 20MA and currently at major support 
  • – Look for buys on pullbacks with neutral EUR news this week

VI. EURJPY

  • – Holding major support currently, needs to hold for further bullishness
  • – Look for potential buys up to weekly open on neutral EUR news

VII. AUDUSD

  • – Bullish currently after AUD news earlier in week
  • – Good shorting opportunity setup depending on USD news later this week 

VIII. NZDJPY

  • – Bearish bias below 200MA and 100MA which are angling down
  • – Take sells targeting weekly open on breakdowns

IX. General

  • – Fade early week pops in AUD, NZD, JPY pairs as they often reverse 
  • – Focus on high probability setups, not trying to nail tops and bottoms

Transcript

So for the US dollar, for this week, we do still have a, bullish outlook on the outset, for the dollar, although, this pullback is taking place. If the news does come in this week as it’s expected, the dollar should continue up.

But we are not guessing, for this pack. So what we’re doing, for this one is we’re just, taking the trades as they come as far as, for this trade right now, this pullback coming back to the 618 for the Fibonacci retracement.

So if that, level is, either because it, as the price came back, it came back almost exactly to that area for, this month, the month of September.

And so with that, we’re gonna keep our eye out to see if it continues to hold this area or, if that area doesn’t need break.

Because we do hope a lot about this trade idea is that this trade idea is still up, for the last week, although it is down for this week And so this would be a pullback.

Very similar to the pullback that we experienced about 3 weeks ago, when the dollar pulled back and then immediately after the dollar pulling back, that’s when the dollar ended up shooting right back up and even to newer highs.

This one looks to be doing the same thing, but this is absolutely dependent upon what that news, comes out as with the CPI numbers as well as, those, inflation numbers as well. So that’s going to affect all of our US, payers.

And so that, including the UC idea. So, again, that UC idea pulling back sitting right there at the 100 peer moving airs on the 4 hour chart. And so that’s taking place because of the fact that, going into the news that is weakened.

So this one is for this week. It’s down for, the last week and it’s down for the week prior. So this one is down for all 3 weeks. So this for the UC ID.

The UC ID is looking pretty bearish, pretty bearish because of the fact that there is no news that is being reported this week for the Canadian dollar, which is why earlier I alerted, everyone to the fact that, there could be bullishness that is seen in the, CJ idea.

And that reason the reason they’re being because of the fact that there is no news being reported at all.

So, that was something that we talked about on the call. This morning as far as, there being potential bullishness, there for the CJ idea because of the fact that the Canadian dollar is not reporting any news at all this week.

So for the GU idea, for the GU idea, it is above. And one of the things that I pointed out today as well is that, for this, for this pair, this is now, is working on the 6 a candle.

And so, technically, this last one did end up dropping below as far as toes below and pushed right back above.

And so, with that, it it would have been 6 consecutive candles in a row, but it we did get, 4 consecutive candles in a row closing above that 20 period moving average.

But alongside of that, we now have, the price still pushing back, still battling back, there. We talked about earlier on the call that this, could easily come back down to as weekly open.

If it does indeed break down, from this, this, major quota area here at 125. And so that’s going to be the test there, especially with the news being reported for the panel.

So they have their employ appointment numbers coming tomorrow. And so that’s something that was alerted there inside of the group. Those employment numbers, coming out tomorrow.

Both of them expecting to be bears. So as far as, a greater number of, people that are unemployed there as well as their unemployment rate going up, both of those numbers being bearish, we are expecting a pullback on this one.

If this one does indeed is able to, for whatever reason, hold, this 125 area, then that is going to be something that is, going to be important to watch as as this could, curl up.

But if it does not hold that, then we are looking at a bearishness all for the panel. And, again, we see this bearishness here. For the pound as it continues to just flush.

And so for this idea, I shared also inside of the, discord that for this one, these are consecutive closures. So this is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 consecutive closes below the 200 pin moving average on the 4 hour chart.

This is, continued bearishness with more bearish news. So this is a bearish technical setup that is pair being paired with the bearishness of the idea.

And so, this one is looking to continue to go down, but the reason why I didn’t alert any prices to buy this one at is because of the fact that the risk reward would not be there for this idea at this point.

Unless there was an absolute flush in price, because of the fact that, again, it did wake up.

So you have to factor that, that weekend, for the idea, and then it’ll only give you about 2 to 1. Or 1 to 2, risk reward ratio for the trade idea.

So the GJ currently with where the price sits, again, absolute bearishness for the idea as far as, technical setup, but it doesn’t present an opportunity to actually enter into that trade idea.

Also, for the EU, what I talked to everyone about today is the fact that, for the EU idea, we were talking, bullish about this because of the fact that it is getting these consecutive closes above the 20 MA.

So this is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. So 6 consecutive closes above the 20 MA. And again, it is resting right here at this major quota area and it is up for the week.

And so this is, signs of something that for a counter trend if it, is able to continue to hold these areas with, neutral news only being reported this week.

So for this week, for the euro on Thursday. It’s just neutral news. So numbers come again exactly as they are expected, for the deposit facility rate as well as the ECB interest rate decision.

So for both of those, neutral news. And so with that, we are expecting for this one to continue to linger above this 20 period moving average.

And then, anywhere down in this area is a buy, taking it up to, looking forward to that that, next, major quarter area on a bounce potentially with a no with a no bearish news being reported as well as a new bullish news being reported.

And so same, sort of a setup here as far as, for, the EJ. So for the EJ, what we’re looking at is Kenneth Hold this, major quota area.

So it did make it up here, to this major quota area, with it being up here at this major quota area, it is going to be super important for it to be able to hold this area and then continue to be able to push up, with it being able to do that, this will be bullish going into that neutral news, because either this trade could just kinda go back up to these areas as far as go back to its weekly open.

Again, there are about 3 weeks that are around the same area. And so, with that, it’s gonna be a very important area to watch as far as for the, euro for the au. This is a very, as far as, for the au, it was a very bullish day.

For the Australian dollar because of the news, that we talked about, coming in as far as, for this morning on the, Monday morning meeting. And now we’re getting some nice consolidation here.

Being above is 50 and it’s 20, but below is 200 and it’s 100. This could end up being something that is a potentially a nice sell off depending on what that US news is as far as once, the report comes out for the dollar.

All we’re going to be strengthening the dollar, all we’re going to be weakening the dollar, according to what the best position is.

And so, awaiting that news, there is currently a no, no, full knowledge of, which direction it is going to go.

But it does set up a nice, shorting opportunity which is something that, we talk about over inside of Discord, pretty pretty pretty frequently, which is that, kind of when you get, on the AU, AJ, NJ, those opportunities.

Once you get those very nice bounces that take place, they usually happen at the top of the week, on those balances.

Those are usually very nice, shorting opportunities, because they’ll pop up early in the week and then kinda fade for the rest of the week and then kinda drop going into the weekend.

So you see that there for the AU and then you see this complete sideways action. Again, not presenting any opportunities here. Weekly open just continues to wick above the weekly open but continues to drop right back down.

No opportunities there for the AJ. And then for, the New Zealand, dollar, what we have here is we have Again, signs of bearishness with it being, below the 200 and the 100 of both of them trending down.

Though it is, although it is currently above, both the, the, 20 and the 50.

The better setup is the setup that is going to the downside. So taking the trade on a breakdown, down to those lows, which are slightly past, the weekly open for the new idea.

But again, with those as far as, for the NL and for the NJ, those, ideas, do typically move, a lot, like, sideways a lot. So you really just wanna take the meat of the tray.

And so that’s what I’ll alert is the meat of the tray, the the middle of the idea. Not getting, trying to be the first one in or the last one out, but just getting what the trade gives you and getting out of that trade idea.

And so That’s what we have for this week. Yeah, please let me know if you have any questions at all.

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