Forex Trading Insights: Trading Opportunities in EUR/USD and USD/JPY 10-11-23

Outline

I. Introduction

The video discusses upcoming news events and how they may impact the US Dollar.

II. Current Market Overview

  • The US Dollar Index has pulled back to a minor support level that needs to hold.
  • There is a gap around 100.550 that may need to be filled. Gaps tend to get filled in forex trading. 

III. Impact of Upcoming News Events

  • PPI numbers coming out could be dovish if they drop as expected. This could lead to a dollar decline. 
  • FOMC meeting minutes will provide insight into Fed policy outlook. This could impact dollar if minutes are hawkish. 

IV. Trading Other Currency Pairs

  • EUR/USD and GBP/USD bouncing back above moving averages, could see further upside.
  • USD/JPY broke below support, only 200-day MA nearby. Bearish outlook.
  • AUD/USD bouncing above moving averages, approaching resistance zone. 

V. Conclusion

  • Use proper risk management around news events that could increase volatility. 
  • Be nimble around major events, watch for potential trading opportunities. 

Transcript

Here coming into Wednesday, we do have some major news getting ready to be reported and that major news is going to affect the outcome of the weight of the US dollar at this time. So here we do have the US dollar index pulled up. We can see this pullback that has occurred with this pullback that we’re looking at.

What we’re seeing is that the dollar dollars currently is resting upon a minor quarter area that it needs in order to hold as support. One of the things that I pointed out before was that there was a gap that needed to be filled most of the time. Gaps like to get filled and there was a gap that needed to be filled down at 100 and 550.

And so we’re seeing this pullback. So one of the things about this pullback is that, again, losses 2050 as well as this100. But it does still have on the four hour chart, it still does have its 200 period moving average as support below as well as a lot of other buying areas that people would definitely be willing to take the dollar back up on.

As far as if more bullish news were to be coming out and if the Fed were to take a more hawkish position in the nearterm. But in the near term we are looking at what could be understood as a more dovish position if there is not a bounce, if this area does not hold. So the area that needs to hold is going to be this minor quarter area.

If price does make it back down to that 100 and 550 area that I talked about, then what we’ll see is we’ll see either that area be the area of the bounce or we’ll see that area break down. Now if we see that area breakdown, there is definitely a time for recalibration as it pertains to the dollar and positions and what that looks like as far as potentially taking a dollar up, potentially what Fed decisions are, what their outlook is. And so with that you definitely want to be nimble in times like these.

You want to have a position and again we swing trade these positions. And so with these positions you can safely hold these positions. You can hold these positions for a good period of time.

You’re not having to anxiously trade these positions. Now whenever there is major news that is coming out, there are more quick positions if you are looking to trade in the immediate term that you need to take. With that being said, we do have the news coming out in the Am, those PPI numbers, month over month as well as year over year, there’s not too big of a difference.

Year over year, just 0.1. But month over month, the consensus estimate is that it will drop from 0.7 down to 0.3.

That is a big drop. That is a major drop for PPI numbers for the month over month for the month of September. So if that does indeed take place, if that does indeed happen, then we will see the dollar respond in accordance with that as well as again, if you know the unison that the market moves in, that should lead to a market bounce.

Now that also needs to be paired with the news that comes later with those FOMC meeting minutes. With those minutes, those minutes will be important as those will shed more light on what it is that we’ve been seeing, on what it is that we’ve been able to understand as it pertains to the Fed’s position and what they are going to be doing in the immediate term. With that being said, I do want us to also see that UC has indeed broken down from that 136 area.

And so now we have it down here at 135 81. And then we also want to see for the UJ idea that that one indeed is below three of those major moving averages and with only its 200 period moving average left as support for it. Wealso see, because this was pointed out earlier, is that what we have is we have a bounce taking place in Gu.

We have a bounce that has taken place on EU, both of those being up for the past couple of weeks, as well as being above all of their moving averages. Except for the 200 period moving average, which again, has been in an incredible drop. So that’s what we have there.

But then also for the au idea, the au idea is above all of its moving averages as well as being up for the week and then for the NU idea, that is the idea that has had the greatest bounce. But what I’ll point it out for that is that if you were not in that idea, that idea is approaching the resistance zone that it had for the end of the month of September.So please be aware of that.

Use caution with that trade idea. Again, if you were in this trade idea, you should have been pulling profits along the way. You should be very nicely in profit depending on where you got into this trade idea.

And so you should be able to pull profits, nice profits here and then let anything else run with a stop loss if the idea does indeed break down. So that’s what we are seeing for our US ideas and we look forward to trading those ideas with you all.

Learn to Trade Stocks:
Enroll in our trading boot camp...

Related Articles

Stocks & Options For Breakfast | Bull Market Breakouts

Stocks  Long stock ideas Financials (BAC, GS) with potential for pullbacks but overall bullish  Healthcare (BHVN, JNJ) showing relative strength  Technology (DOCS) early uptrend Short stock ideas Basic materials (AEM, STLD) clearly bearish sector Energy (XOM, CVX) at support levels but potential to go lower  Risk management Position sizing critical in volatile markets  Use stop…

Podcast: Stocks & Options 3-23-24

Trade Stocks With Pete  |  Trade Options With John Summary Navigating the late-stage market cycle: How to stay cautiously bullish while avoiding potential pitfalls   Mastering the art of chart-reading: Discover why respecting technicals is crucial for trading success, no matter your opinions   Traders vs. Investors: Uncover the surprising differences in how they approach…

Stock Market Faces Critical Test

Outline Introduction Discussion about energy stocks and their performance on Friday Mention of sector rotation and order flow analysis Analysis of Specific Stocks Mention of M, TDR, and SM stocks and their performance Observation of buying coming back consistently in the sector Noting that some stocks are at or near breakout levels Energy Sector Stocks…

Responses

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *