Forex Trading Insights: The Dollar, GDP, and Powell 9-28-23

Outline

I. Introduction

  • Overview of dollar movement for the day
  • Dollar made expected large move up from minor quarter area to next minor quarter area
  • Temporarily went above monocarter area to 839 before retreating back below by close

II. Analysis for Today

  • Looking for GDP numbers at 8:30 AM as expected for range bound price action if no change
  • Could see slight push up or drop down to retest trendline without new catalyst
  • Possible pullback to last area of established price action at 100.625 would be healthy

III. Other Key Events Today

  • Jobless claims numbers at 8:30 AM
  • GDP number most important at 8:30 AM expected to remain the same
  • Powell speaking at 2:00 PM after GDP numbers
  • Need to watch for volatility around Fed meeting at 2:00 PM

IV. Review of Other Currency Pairs

  • AUD/USD pulled back to wild card area, looking for hold to continue push up
  • USD/JPY nice healthy pullback after move up, still up big for the week
  • Dollar pairs looking as expected going into Fed meeting

Transcript 

So today with the dollar, we pretty much got the move that we were expecting to get with the dollar for the day.The move was actually a surprisingly large move, all things being considered with the news that came out today.

So the move did go from the minor quarter area up to the next minor quarter area. It did temporarily make it above the monocarter area, making it all the way to 839, and then before retreating back as far as to close the day below the monoclonal area. So again, what we’re going to be looking for for tomorrow is if the numbers, the GDP numbers come in as expected, we could see anything as far as range bound kind of take place with price action, with everything remaining the same as far as kind of the news being priced in, since nothing’s changing.

So we could see slight push up here, we could see a drop down retest the trend line, because even with what has taken place here, there hasn’t been another retest after kind of hearing that news. So we could see kind of pricedrop as far as kind of to this trendline area if the price action does want to pull back, because again, we could easily get a pullback just because of the fact that we have been on a continued run. We talked about before how we got that pullback last week, very nice pullback before this buy.

And so with that we could definitely get a nice size pullback, a pullback coming back to the last place of established price action. And so that place being 100 and 625, so we can get a nice pullback to 100 and 625 and still be sayingand be ready for everything to continue to be bullish. And then even at 02:00 p.m.

Tomorrow, after the GDP numbers, we still have Powell giving his speech at 02:00, alongside of understanding the other numbers that are being reported. As far as the jobless numbers that are being reported tomorrow at 830 as well. So we have the jobless numbers, we also have the important number being the GDP number, which is expected to remain the same, aka price, then, aka price staying range bound, not getting out of hand before that 02:00 meeting with the Fed.

And so that’s what we’re seeing here with the dollar, with the UCI deal, we did get that one pulling back to the wildcard area. So again, looking for this wild card area to hold as far as this wild card area to hold here in order to continue to push up as well as with the UJ idea. Again, nice pullback.

That’s what you want to see. This is very healthy, these types of pullbacks here still up very sizably for the week. And So everything looking exactly as it is supposed to look for the dollar.

And so we’re looking for that to continue into tomorrow, even through the Fed’s report.

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