Forex Trading Insights: Technical Analysis on USD, CAD, EUR, JPY 10-18-23

Outline

Introduction

  • Overview of market reaction to retail sales and CPI data
  • Impact on major currency pairs like US Dollar (USD), Canadian Dollar (CAD), Euro (EUR), and Japanese Yen (JPY)

US Dollar (USD) Technical Analysis

  • Dollar index (DXY) struggling around moving averages (20, 50, 100 MA)
  • Needs to reclaim shorter term MAs to gain bullish control
  • Key levels, support and resistance zones

Canadian Dollar (CAD) Technical Analysis

  • CAD dropped on bearish CPI numbers
  • Possible basing above 121 support level
  • Making higher lows, needs confirmation

Euro (EUR) Technical Analysis

  • Bouncing more than CAD
  • Basing around 100.50 support zone
  • Close above 100-period MA needed for bullish breakout

Japanese Yen (JPY) Technical Analysis

  • UJ/USDJPY holding above 149.75 minor support
  • Needs this level to hold for next push towards 150
  • Bullish on positive news

Next Events

  • Fed speaker on Thursday could impact markets
  • Jobless claims, home sales on Thursday morning
  • Continued monitoring of key levels, technicals

Conclusion

  • Summary of price action and levels to watch
  • Cautiously bullish on USD recovery, CAD basing
  • EUR needs to clear 100-period MA
  • UJ/USDJPY needs 149.75 to hold as support

Transcript

So today was a semi bullish news reporting day because of the fact that the consensus was beat for retail sales.Whereas for the CPI, those numbers just completely came in bearish. Which is why for the Canadian dollar, we did see an immediate drop that continued.

But then for the US dollar, we saw a rise that was short lived. So with Dixie here we see again it’s playing a game of moving averages and so right now below the shorter term 20 period, 50 period and then with the support of the 100 period here and so it’s going to need to make a decision either way. Also with news coming out as far as onThursday, that news is as far as with the Fed speaking, depending on what it is that he says, depending on what Powell said on Thursday, that will definitely move the markets and we’ll have our markets be the decision as far as which direction the market wants to go next.

We also have on Thursday, as far as Thursday morning at 830, we have those jobless claims and the home sales numbers that morning. So 830 and 10:00 a.m. Are those reports.

So it will be interesting to see what happens as far as what happens this week for the dollar. So for the dollar,one of those very key and critical areas that are going to need to be reclaimed is going to be for the dollar to get back above these shorter term moving averages. Because without that bulls.

Do not feel as though they have the control right now with the dollar, without the dollar, regaining both of these shorter term period moving averages and with those moving averages being atop of the dollar. And the last three. Four hour candle closes being pressure above for the dollar index.

It’s definitely going to be an interesting story to see if the dollar can indeed push above those moving averages and hold. Because again, we see here that it pushes above, but when it pushes above, it does not hold. We got one candle hold here and then once we got that one candle hold, the next candle closed right on the 20.

The following candle closed below, not only the 20 but also the 20 and the 50. Same thing for the following candle,same thing for our current candle. With that being said, we do see, you see again with the news coming out, that’s why we had, if you will, this railroad that took place next and that’s when Price decided to settle in here right above its moving averages.

And then we have for the Gu idea, this idea is pushing up as far as to say that 121 was bottom and so we’ll see if that continues to hold. Again, the low here is not the low here, so it is making higher lows. So we’ll see if this will base out and continue to grow from there.

We see very similar with the EU. Only thing with the EU is that the EU is actually bouncing more than the Gu is. So with the EU, what we’re getting is we’re getting this basin around 100 and 550.

And with this basin that we’re getting around 100 and 550, we have now attempting to get a close above this 100 period moving average. So if we can get a close above this 100 period moving average, that definitely will be a good sign for the EU trade and for that EU idea going into the future. Last but not least, we have the UJ idea here above the minor quarter area of 149 75.

And with this kind of resting above that area, it does need that area to remain support so it can make another attempt at 150. Without this area holding, it will not push forward with the next bullish news being reported to the 150 area. So we’ll continue to watch and see what takes place there to see if it can indeed get that push.

And what we have for our different ideas.

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