Forex Trading Insights: Technical Analysis of Major Pairs 11-28-23


Overview of Major Forex Pairs 

Dollar Index (DXY) 

  1. Bearish trajectory continuing from previous week 
  2. Support levels to watch 1. 103 2. 102 3. 100 – major level 
  3. Potential to make new lows and continue downward


  1. Down for the week 
  2. Below all moving averages 
  3. Potential for continued bearish momentum


  1. Bullish momentum 
  2. Bounce off 20 and minor support level 
  3. Continuation of bullish trajectory


  1. Close above 66 resistance 
  2. Looking to hold above that level 
  3. Room to pull back


  1. Continually getting rejected at 61 level 
  2. Basing above support
  3. Watching if 61 support will hold


  1.  Summarize “filling out” price action 
  2. Discuss continuing analysis through the week


So for the top of the week, we kind of got a bit of kind of filling out, boxing sort of action taking place, which is usually how the top of the week usually goes. The very first business day here in the States usually gets a feeling out kind of a positioning. So usually there a leaning towards bullishness or leaning towards bearishness with that filling out.

So this leaning for this week is a leaning towards bearishness. Well, continued bearishness because it’s already been bearish. We did get a bounce last week, but that bounce was a rejection.

So with that just continued bearishness, we did see the lows already this week that we saw last week here, these lows here, matching these lows here. So that’s what we have for the dollar index, that’s the trajectory for this week is that new lows will potentially be made as price continues to flush. Remember we talked about what it is that we are forecasting for this longer term.

When we look back at where things were towards November of last year and towards November of last year, we talked about how things were about in that 105 area, Ibelieve it was when we talked about it last time in November around that 105 area. And here we can see that around this 105 area towards the end of November. And then that was coming down at a very fast pace to not only slice through the wild card area, but then to break down below the wild card area for the first and second weeks ofDecember.

With that we started off already below those areas. So with this we can expect this to continue as far as this bearishness to continue, whereas we don’t really have true and real support until we get down to about this kind of to about this $100 area. And we talked about this area before, how that area bought up.

So we have 101 here for support. Before that 100 area, we have 102 here as support. So underneath where we are now we have 103, but after 103 we have 102 and of course we have the 100 and 250 as far as that major quarter area, and then underneath that we have 101, and then underneath that we have the 100 mark.

So we will continue to watch this and see how this idea continues to shape up and what continues to take place here with this idea and with the dollar index because this one is trending down, it is inside of an area that it has seen last week. So last week it saw this same area. This time it’s seeing this area at the start of the week.

Last week it saw this area at the start of the week and then bounced from this area after that drop. So this one is after that bounce when it belt down to start this week off back at the same area. So this is going to be super important and a super important level to watch and see what really happens here and see if price just breaks down from here and flushes or if there is some temporary support that can be found here.

We see for the UC idea again for this one being down for the week. Underneath all of this moving averages, we do have as far as at the top of the week the 50 periods crossing over the 100 period with that bearish cross, that death cross and we see for the guid again, all of our USD pairs do have bullish momentum and this one is up for the week. Bullish momentum and up for the week.

After a pullback to touch the 20, we talked about this one over in discord. So to touch the 20 and the minor porter area perfectly. So I touched the minor this is the precision that you can’t look at this, look at how precise that is.

So as soon as you get a crossover between these when you get an overlap between these two, you get a perfect touch. Like you can’t draw this up any better than this perfect touch of the minor quarter and the 20 period moving average bounced immediately off of that back above not only the weekly open but also back above the minor wild card area. So again, very critical key area that came in here with the conflation of those two points.

We also have the AU idea again up for the week above all of its moving averages and it did get that close above. We said that it was working on that close above 66 because before it could not get that close and hold. So it got a close but it could not get a hold.

So it didn’t get a close and hold above. Now it got a close. Now we’re looking for a hold and now it has more space to pull back too, whereas this one, it was barely over,which is why when it pulled back it just was over with.

But with this one it does have space to pull back. So we also see with the NU idea, we see this one up for the week above all of its moving averages. We do see another rejection here, 61.

We talked about how we were looking to see if this one could indeed hold 61 because it keeps touching 61, poking through 61 but not being able to hold 61. So we’ll look for this to continue to base here above not only the support over here, but exactly where this week started off. So we’ll look to see if this thing can hold support here.

If so, this will continue in this trajectory. If it cannot hold the support here, then it will capitulate break down, find support in its moving averages and we’ll see which one decides to catch it GU idea. Again pulling back.

All of our yen pairs started off the week pulling back, which is pretty much par for the course. So pulling back for a potential move back upwards, EJ, same thing. So pullback for a potential move upward off of these moving averages.

UJ again pull back. But this one does have a bearish trajectory. We did get a death cross prior.

And also we’re getting ready to get the 100 crossing over the 200 in a bearish formation. So we’re watching out for that. We also have for the Canadian dollar, we have that one losing all of its moving averages here and also being down for the week here.

We had the AJ idea again, down for the week, punch back up, get rejected right here and going still down for the week. Fortunately, had moving average 20 period moving average here to end support above 98, as well as the NJ idea. Again, support above 20 period moving average.

Also support above that 90 50 area on this pullback here off of these highs where it couldn’t touch 91, touch 91, touch 91, but it could never hold 91. And so that’ll be what it would be looking to do on this next move up. So that’s what we have for our charts at the start of this week.

Again, kind of like a boxing match, if you will, filling out the opponents, filling out one another. So that’s what we’re getting so far. We’re getting kind of just filling out whatbears, filling out bulls and bulls, filling out bears to see what this week is going to shape up to be.

And so as this week continues to progress, we will lay out the ideas as they form and point out to you guys what it is that we’re going to be doing and when it is that we’re going to be doing it.

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