Forex Trading Insights: Technical Analysis of Major Currencies 1-30-24

Overview

  • The US dollar popped back up to the 103.750 minor quarter level before dropping back down to the weekly open and 20 period moving average.
  • The dollar made new monthly highs before pulling back.
  • The UC idea made fresh new lows, dropping below its moving averages on the daily and weekly charts. 134 level is key support.

Dollar Index (DXY)

  • Hit 103.750 minor quarter level before pulling back to weekly open and 20 period moving average
  • Ended day at weekly open and 20 period moving average
  • More bearishness on the UC idea, making new lows
  • UC idea below all moving averages on daily chart, no moving average harmony
  • Weekly chart shows pullback after 4 weeks of bouncing
  • Resting on 134 support level – critical area, break below could be bad

Euro (EURUSD)

  • Steady downtrend, bearish channel back to 200 period moving average
  • More bearishness expected on EURUSD

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

  • Consolidating in tight 65.750 to 66.100 range for 2 weeks
  • Bearish news expected on AUDUSD

New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

  • Closed day maintaining all moving averages and weekly open
  • Below major quarter level, needs break above
  • Expecting bearish news
  • Lower highs pattern forming
  • Good support at 0.97 area

Key Takeaways

  • Watching dollar at weekly open and 20 period moving average
  • 134 support critical for UC idea 
  • Bearishness expected on EURUSD and AUDUSD
  • NZDUSD key level is major quarter breakout
  • Major forex news events this week will drive price action

Transcript

Greetings. So today, the dollar did pop. So it did make it back up to that major quarter, that minor quarter level for us, that minor quarter level of 103, 750.

And after it hit the minor quarter level of 103 750, it then dropped back down to the weekly open and the 20 period moving average. And so that’s where the dollar is ending the day.

We did get even more bearishness on the UC idea .

So again, making fresh new lows. And again, another thing I wanted to point out for the dollar as well is that the dollar ended up making highs on the month. So we have monthly highs that were hit before this pullback.

So this hit monthly highs and then pulled back down to the 20 pair moving average.

And the weekly open for the UC idea, the UC idea is pulling back off of these moving averages. After pulling back off of these moving averages, new lows were made.

New lows are being made here. So lows that have not been seen in the past two weeks. So over the past two weeks, these lows haven’t been seen.

And so that’s what we have here. It is underneath all of its moving averages. So that is not the best take for it.

But when we take this and then we back it out and we look at the daily, what we’re able to see here is that we’re able to see that if we go back to the middle of January, it’s still resting on top of and finding support here at the support area from the middle of January. So from the middle of January, the other thing that it does not have in its favor for this UC idea  is that this UC idea  is underneath all of its moving averages on the daily chart as well. And there is no harmony to its moving averages as well.

So it has its 100, then it’s 200, then it’s 50, which has already done a bearish crossover, and then it has its 20 pair moving average at the bottom. So that’s what it looks like on the daily. And then if we look at it and we pull it back on the weekly, we can see here that we do have a pullback after the bounce up that took place.

So after the bounce that took place over the past four weeks. So four weeks of a bounce pullback as far as those wicks there, and then now it is resting on top of that 134 area. So that 134 area is going to be a very key, very critical area for the UC idea continuing to hold 134.

If 134 breaks down, that could be bad for the UC idea. But again, that is going to be contingent upon the news that comes out this week for the dollar index.

We also have for the UJ idea, again, this one is resting upon this major quarter level here, which also happens to be exactly where the 50 period moving average is.

So if this area cannot break back above, then we could get some consolidation below these areas. So below the 50 period moving average and below the major quarter level for the UJ idea, we do have some major news coming out. And so with that major news that is coming out, we do want to make sure that we take advantage of that.

So again, some of that major news that is coming out overnight are with as far as tonight, it is going to be with the Australian dollar. And then in the early am is going to be with the euro. So with the euro, again, we do have this bearishness here.

There is more bearishness that is expected with the euro as well. So this one could come back and test this level here. So again, it has been in a steady, a very steady downtrend.

So a very steady downtrend. So very steady channel here. As far as bearish channel here for it coming back down to the 200 period moving average.

And so we’ll see what happens to price once it makes it down to this 200 period moving average. That is what is being expected for that news.

And then for the Australian dollar.

What we have for that news is for that News again, we’ve been having consolidation around this area for a very long period of time for the au pair. So it’ll make it up here to where this resistance has been. Now, as far as for now, this has been the past two weeks this resistance has been here.

So it’ll make it up here to the top and then come right back down to the bottom. And so it’s been very tight in this 65 750 range up to this 66 one range. So very tight range here.

So we’ll see kind of what decides to happen for that idea.

And as well as for the AJ idea, this one did close the day maintaining not only all of its moving averages in sync, but also its weekly open. The kicker here for this one that is not in its favor is that it is below this major quarter level.

So it will need to break above this major quarter level. You can take that trade idea. If it does decide to break above again, this one is expecting bearish news.

So if it does decide to break above, then that could be something that could be traded to the downside again. High here. Lower, high, lower, high here.

So it is making lower highs. This area is acting as far as weekly open 20 period moving average all moving averages underneath in order and in sync 97 area being an area of consistent support for it. We are looking for this one to be able to maintain even with the bearish news that is coming out around it and so we’ll see how this one fares.

So again, as far as from the dollars outlook, we do have the dollar pulling back to the weekly open so again a zero sum game. So those who bought at the top of the week,they could have sold for a smaller gain as far as intaking that to that minor quarter level. Now that pullback has caused for price to now rest upon weekly open at this time.

So weekly open and 20 period moving average where they are in that same spot. So we are watching this one as this week continues to develop and we will keep you all posted on these ideas as they come to fruition and as these ideas make their decision on the route that they’re going to go. Based on the news that is reported.

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