- Greeting and date (October 4th)
- Overview of expecting dollar weakness into Wednesday and Friday
II. Dollar Weakness
- Result of ADP employment change numbers projected to drop
- Numbers revised down further than expected
- Seeing drop in dollar and yen pairs (UC, UJ)
- Additional bearish reports coming out today
- ISM Services PMI projected to drop
- Expect continued dollar drop and weakness
III. Technical Analysis
- 4 hour chart shows series of closes above 107, now first close below
- Rejection and wicks at trendline, battling 137
- UJ liquidity sweep then bounce to 149 target
- Below 149.25 minor quarter area before news
- Small buffer before hitting weekly open
IV. Trading Plan
- Anticipate further bearish move with upcoming news
- Wait for selling to finish before buying dips
- Take trades at key levels after selloffs
- Summary of expecting and planning for dollar weakness
- Excited for trading day ahead
Good morning, everyone. So we are here, it is October the fourth.
We are here a little bit after 06:00 A.m. This morning. But what we want to do is we want to actually just look at and take a look at and understand what’s taking place with the Dollar.
Yesterday in our group and in our community, what we called out was the Dollar weakness. We expected at the top of the week when we had our overview doll weakness going into Wednesday, but also going into Friday as well. And What we’re seeing on the chart is we’re seeing that Dollar weakness.
And so with this Dollar weakness, this is coming as a result of the ADP employment change numbers that are expected to come out. If you guys can remember from where we talked about this earlier this week, and those numbers, those numbers were projected to drop from 177,000 down to 160,000. But those numbers have been revised.
And now those numbers are not only expected to drop down to 160K, they’re expected to drop down to 153,000. So That is a pretty big drop to drop from 177,000 to 153,000. And so that’s why we are seeing not only this drop take place in the Dollar, but we’re also seeing this drop that we’re going to be able to see with the UC pair as well as theUJ pair.
And so with those, I also want you guys to be aware of the fact that this morning we’re also having the Ism ServicesPMI numbers for the month of September coming out. And those numbers are expected to drop from 54.5 down to 53.6.
Those are two bearish moves that are expected to take place here in the forex market today. And so with those two bearish moves taking place today, we can expect for the Dollar to continue this drop. It’s already starting the day off below 107.
So before everything even gets started, as far as those reports come in that we’re going to be trading together, we do already have a 107 break. Yesterday we had everything closing above 107 to point out, what I’m saying is for the four hour chart here we have our very first close that took place on Monday. This candle, number 1, second candle,third candle, fourth candle, fifth candle, 6th candle, 7th candle, 8th candle, 9th candle, 10th candle, and a row all closing above that 107 area.
But as we come into today, we are already below 107. That was something that we called yesterday when we’re saying that these numbers are expected to come in bearish and that the numbers are expected to come in evenmore bearish than they were projected to come in. As far as for that earlier projection, we also have here, again,below the 137 mark.
We are below the 137 mark. So now we came up, we tested this trend line. We got a few Wicks above, so we got oneWick, two, three, four, and then we have five here, six here, so six candles wicking above, never holding it, so only once holding it, but all these candles wicking above.
And now we have this rejection here at this trend line. But we also have right now a battle taking place for 137 with this Bearish News getting ready to be released here at 815 this morning, as well as even more Bearish News at 10:00A.m.. So let’s get ready for that.
We also have here for the UJ idea, we have this Liquidity sweep that took place here. So different people call it different things. We have a liquidity sweep, liquidity run, so that took place here with these swaps.
But then also after we got the bounce that came back, you ended up having 149 being that target area, which was the same area that we talked about yesterday. So with this 149 area being the target area, it is still below that minor quarter area of 149 25 before the news comes out. So again, this is just providing a buff so that when that news comes out, it has a very small buffer until it makes it back down to the weekly open.
So that’s what we’re seeing here right now. So don’t buy into the trap knowing that Bearish News is coming out and that Bearish News is being projected. Wait until an all the selling is finished and then you’ll have your times in your areas and your periods to buy.
Again, we want to lock this in as smoothly as possible. And the way that we do that is by knowing what it is that we’re expecting, what it is that we’re looking for. We wait until we see it and then we pounce on those opportunities asthose opportunities present themselves in the market.
I look forward to trading with you guys today. Bye.