Forex Trading Insights: Analyzing the Dollar’s Reaction to the Fed 2-1-24


Analysis of Dollar Index After Fed Decision to Pause Interest Rates

  • Dollar index in a range between 103.75 and 103.25
  • Dollar index currently around weekly open level, zero sum gain on the week
  • Range needs to break up or down to signal bullish or bearish control

Current Price Action and Indicators

  • Dollar closing above moving averages and weekly open, bullish sign
  • UC idea below moving averages but tight trading range between them
  • UJ found support at 200 period moving average

Considerations and Expectations

  • Dollar not decisively bullish or bearish currently
  • Moving averages trending sideways, not a strong directional bias
  • Slight favor to upside due to moving averages alignment
  • Avoid taking heavy trades until index breaks out of range


  • Digestion period for markets after Fed decision
  • Rangebound price action presents challenges
  • Patience required to see where momentum builds
  • Follow key levels and watch for breakouts


Matt’s post-Fed decision Forex analysis highlights the dollar index’s stagnation, indicating no significant change as it closes around its weekly opening.

This price action sets a crucial range between 103.750 and 103.250, where a break above or below will signal control by bulls or bears, respectively.

Currently, the dollar maintains a slight bullishness, staying above all moving averages, suggesting caution in trading as it hasn’t chosen a clear direction.

The emphasis is on responding to how the dollar responds to key levels and moving averages.

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