Forex Trading Insight: Technical Analysis On Bullish US Dollar

Outline

I. Introduction

  • This week we are looking at a bullish US dollar going into Wednesday
  • Key levels to watch:
    • Close above 100.675 minor quarter area for confirmation
    • Pullback due to respected trendline support

II. Current Market Outlook

  • Price holding above 100.675 minor quarter area
  • Looking for close above to build base and push towards 107 target
  • Minor consolidation expected between minor quarter and wildcard areas if 100.675 close not achieved

III. Tuesday Forecast

  • No major news events for dollar on Tuesday
  • Expect dollar trend to continue absent new drivers

IV. Wednesday Projections

  • Potential dollar pullback Wednesday morning on bearish news
  • ADP employment change and ISM services PMI reports in focus
  • Both expected to drop after upside manufacturing PMI surprise

V. Dollar Pair Opportunities

  • Close above 136.75 needed on UC idea after minor quarter rejection
  • Consolidation around 136.27/136.278 for next push higher
  • UJ buy idea holding above minor quarter, target 150 before Wednesday retracement
  • Similar price action to last week expected – push higher before end of week pullback

VI. Conclusion

  • Watch for dollar volatility on potential back-to-back big weeks
  • Key levels outlined for dollar pairs trades around events/technicals

Transcript

This week, we are looking at a pretty bullish dollar going into Wednesday. So up to this point, so today beingMonday, what we have is we have this bullish dollar. We’re looking to get a close above this minor quarter area hereof 100 and 675.

If we can get a close above this minor quarter area here, we will be looking good. We’re getting this pullback simply because of the trend line that it has existed. We’ve looked at this trend line for not only last week, but this trendline has also existed even before then and has been getting respected.

And so with this, we do have this minor pullback here, but again, the price is staying above the minor quarter area of100 and 675. So if this price does indeed close above and can begin to build a base, we can see this continue to push up to that 107 area going into Tuesday, Tuesday not having any major news for the dollar at all. And so since there will not be any major news for the dollar, the dollar will continue in the trend that it is in.

And then it is not until Wednesday morning that the dollar can experience a pullback because of the bearish news that is being reported for the ADP employment change as well as the Ism services numbers. So we got the manufacturing numbers that came in better than expected, so we can potentially see the services numbers come in better than expected as well. But we have to wait for that report.

The expectation we talked about this morning on the Morning Call is that those numbers are expected to drop as well as the employment change is expected to drop 17,000 as well. So with that, those are the reports that we are expecting for Wednesday of this week. So with this, what we want to do is we see again, we need a close here inorder to push up to that 107 area.

If we do not get the close here, we’re going to consolidate in between this minor quarter area and the minor wildcard area below. So we’re going to consolidate between these two areas. If we cannot get this close above this minor quarter area of 100 and 675, we also have, for the UC idea again getting rejected almost immediately at theminor quarter area here.

It did push up just very slightly above that area and getting rejected immediately after touching. And so that’s what you have right now. So again, we’re fighting for this close above this minor quarter area as well of 136 75.

We’re looking for a close above that. We’re looking for price to close above that to continue up again, because of thenice movement that it’s already gotten this week, this is just Monday. We can get a very nice pullback here to allow for price to really consolidate here at these highs.

So around that 136 27, around this other minor quarter area, that 136, 278 and so with that we can get a consolidation there around that point to push back up. So we’ll continue to watch this one. But again we are looking for this one to continue to push up as well going into Wednesday.

And then we also have for the UJ idea, we have this idea above this minor quarter area as well. With this one being above this minor quarter area, we are looking for this one to continue up as well, that it is already up on the week, we are looking for that to continue. We are looking for JPY to touch that 150 area potentially before Wednesday Because on Wednesday is where that potential retreat can happen.

And so on Wednesday we do have that expectation, that consensus being for a bearish report as well as for theFriday report to be a bearish report as well. So again, this could push up to 150 before seeing that retracement,before seeing that pullback, very similar to what we saw last week. What we got price to push up the entire week right before the end of the week, and then right at the end of the week, that’s when it pulled back and so we could get that same thing happening again.

Please keep your eyes open and on watch for the dollar movement. This is set to be another back to back week of an incredible opportunity of volatility. Here with are dollar pairs.

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